Nothing moves in a straight line and with 3rd consecutive weekly close of lower low, the dollar index look set for a retracement of some sort. Mark that we have host of economic data next week that could help support the dollar for another week.
In the medium to long term, we envisage a weaker dollar index as the last Federal press conference rings a clear dovish remark and additional (not necessarily) helpful comments from other FOMC members may have solidify that Yellen wants a weaker dollar for now.
However, we will remind readers once again nothing moves in a straight line and should not be surprised to see a bounce as dollar range trade in the symmetrical triangle pattern. With that in mind, several scenarios may well happen:
- Commodities to take a back seat and look to build strong support zone
- Stocks sell off and this could be the catalyst for further selling
- Bear in mind that dollar index is very much Data dependant and Greek Deal or No Deal
- As Greece goes down to the wire, safe haven buy to the dollar may continue next week
- Once deal is done, the corrective rally in the dollar is done with a potential upside capped by the 20 WMA
- Looking further, an AB = CD pattern will play out (assuming the 20 WMA did act as resistance followed by a rather major sell off in the dollar index
So look for the rally and wait patiently to open a short position as we approach the end of next week.
Key price to watch are - 20 WMA / 95.32 and 93.13
In the medium to long term, we envisage a weaker dollar index as the last Federal press conference rings a clear dovish remark and additional (not necessarily) helpful comments from other FOMC members may have solidify that Yellen wants a weaker dollar for now.
However, we will remind readers once again nothing moves in a straight line and should not be surprised to see a bounce as dollar range trade in the symmetrical triangle pattern. With that in mind, several scenarios may well happen:
- Commodities to take a back seat and look to build strong support zone
- Stocks sell off and this could be the catalyst for further selling
- Bear in mind that dollar index is very much Data dependant and Greek Deal or No Deal
- As Greece goes down to the wire, safe haven buy to the dollar may continue next week
- Once deal is done, the corrective rally in the dollar is done with a potential upside capped by the 20 WMA
- Looking further, an AB = CD pattern will play out (assuming the 20 WMA did act as resistance followed by a rather major sell off in the dollar index
So look for the rally and wait patiently to open a short position as we approach the end of next week.
Key price to watch are - 20 WMA / 95.32 and 93.13