If you read the original T.V. Minute, "Mid-Term outlook," referenced below, you know we have stuck to the path, UNTIL recently, where we seem to be caught in a correction that just will not end. I am counting this correction as the Minute ((ii)), and you can see the count highlighted in the chart. My thought is that we have simply not had a single clear 5-wave move down to complete the correction or even any subdivision of the correction. I have been watching closely for 10 days, and cannot find it...price adds weight to observation, having weakened, throughout without taking out the highs. I had called for a second move into the upper 105s, which we got, but not in a 5 wave move, and price weakened further. Today, we had a fast runnup that put the whole market on its toes, and in private chat I commented that it was futile and would not take us up. Within 2 hours, price had impulsively retraced nearly the entire runnup. I mention the impulsivity, and its location is noted in the chart, because it gives me hope that we are almost ready to complete Minute ((ii)). We had nicely impulsive structure AND reached proper wave-5 fib extensions with a retest that held those extensions. If we can avoid new interim highs, and complete 2 more motivated 5 wave moves to the downside, I will be ready to say, TO THE MOON, but not until that occurs. I was swayed by price, earlier this week, and claimed we were ready to launch, and I apologize. I have dug into MACD and identified a clear (a) wave location that lines up structurally, and that is also noted in the chart.
My expectation is that over the next 1-2 sessions we will get the 5 wave move needed to complete Minute ((ii)) and move on. After that...bat out of hell...to the moon...but really, we will continue this process with a Minuette (i)-(ii), and who knows if it will be swift, or complex?
Best, Cuz
My expectation is that over the next 1-2 sessions we will get the 5 wave move needed to complete Minute ((ii)) and move on. After that...bat out of hell...to the moon...but really, we will continue this process with a Minuette (i)-(ii), and who knows if it will be swift, or complex?
Best, Cuz
Comment:
Want to update to say, I have taken the position that the correction is finished in a multi-combo wave, (w, x, y, x, y) for (w), then ((x), (y)) for Minute ((ii)). I reviewed the chart alongside equity futures, ad nauseum throughout the past 24 hours, and reviewed more Elliot Wave literature than typical, and it appears that there are times in the market where 5 wave correction completion simply won't come. In those cases, and I am taking some editorial liberty, here, the market eventually moves on and presumably the stubborn participants who stood their ground win. Here, we see a very bullish dollar that has worked out the perfect amount of magnitude, IMO, to complete a Minute ((ii)) correction, albeit at a relatively slow pace. All the times we tried to go down, big dogs stepped up and bought it all!...And why wouldn't they? This market could easily hit 113-115 by the end of the year, and a 9% return on most types of contract trades could be 3x money. The next moves should be swifter, but we still have the Minuette (ii) to contend with, and there is still enough magnitude there to make things complicated. Not out of the woods, but a new high here would go a long way to validating this count, further.
