leochecon

O que aconteceu com USDBRL entre 2010-2016 em 7 eventos

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
(A) 1a Eleição de Dilma Rousseff
(B) Início do rally do DYX US Dollar Index            
(C) Reeleição de Dilma Rousseff
(D) Eduardo Cunha, presidente da Câmara de Deputados, aceita pedido de impeachement da Presid. Dilma Rousseff
(E) Câmara de Deputados instaura processo de impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, com mais de 2/3 dos votos
(F) Enfraquecimento do rally do DYX
(G) Referendo brexit

É interessante comparar a evolução percentual do par dolar americano x real ( USDBRL             ) com a evolução do DYX, índice que compara valor do USD com cesta de principais moedas do mundo. De 2010 a 2016 houve uma valorização do USD de uma forma geral, mas o impacto na moeda brasileira foi extraordinário.
Note como surge uma diferença significativa entre a evolução percentual dos índices já no segundo ano do mandato de Dilma, em 2012, quando o USDBRL             cresce cerca de 10% a mais que o DYX. Essa diferença será fortemente ampliada após a releeição, chegando a um pico de mais de 100% no início de 2016.
No contraponto, os sinais de troca de governo forçam uma tendência de queda para o par USDBRL             , já em Fevereiro-2016, reduzindo a diferença percentual. Somada a queda experimentada pelo DYX a partir de Maio-2016, o movimento de USDBRL             ganha ainda mais vigor. Mas até quando? Esse movimento de entrada de dolares é tido pelos analistas com um dos principais drivers da tendência bullish da Bovespa ( IBOV             ) nos últimos meses.

Comentários são muito bem vindos!
leochecon
3 months ago
English version: What happened to USDBRL between 2010-2016 in 7 events

(A) President Dilma Rousseff first election
(B) Here starts the DYX rally
(C) President Dilma Rousseff secong election
(D) President of chamber of deputies, Eduardo Cunha, accepts the request of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff
(E) Chamber of deputies votes and accepts the instauration of the impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff, with more than 2/3 of votes
(F) Here the DYX rally starts to run out of fuel
(G) Brexit referendum

It is interesting to compare the percentage change of the pair USDBRL with the evolution of DYX index, which compares the value of the USD with a basket of major world currencies. From 2010 to 2016 there was an appreciation of the USD in general, but the impact on the Brazilian currency was extraordinary.
Look the arising of a significant difference between the percentage change of the index in the second year of Dilma's term in 2012, when the USDBRL grows about 10% more than the DYX. This difference is highly amplified after the secong election, reaching a peak of more than 100% in the early 2016.
In contrast, the signals of government changing (castled by the consequences of the "car wash opperation" and the impeachment process) forces a bearish trend for the pair USDBRL since February 2016, reducing the percentage difference. Coupled with the fall experienced by DYX from May 2016, the movement of USDBRL earns more force. But for how long?
The movement of entrance of dollars in the Brazilian market is seen by analysts as the main driver of the bullish trend of the brazilian stock index (Bovespa IBOV).
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