It's been months since I published an idea, My last was in January.. had to work on my craft to yield better results. I studied a lot and saw little but I think it's worth sharing
Now let's get into it.
MONTHLY
We saw price break above 01 May '23, now it's traded back into the range.
This can be interpreted in 2 different ways
1. A bullish break in market structure followed by a pullback/retracement
2. A run on stops (buyside liquidity resting above 105.883) and then continue down into the lows
Now to me, picking a side on this timeframe wouldn't be wise because the price action here is subjective
WEEKLY
On this timeframe, I have the year divided into Quarters(4). 3months/Quarter
Jan-Mar (Q1) April-Jun (Q2) Jul-Sept (Q3) Oct-Dec (Q4)
The highs of these quarters are my dealing ranges. 80% of the time, the market tends to reverse after trading above or below them. So moving forward with that idea in mind, let's come up with a narrative
We can argue that the bull run on the dollar was a product of it trading below 100.788 (Previous Quarter's Low), after that ran straight up to 104.699 and ultimately took out 105.883 (First Quarter's High). What happens next?
Mind you, we're in this year's fourth quarter hence the high and low of the previous quarter is our new dealing range (107.348 and 99.578) but note how the high of our dealing range wasn't breached yet the dollar breaks lower. This is where we have the light bulb hovering above our heads.. yes, weakness. DXY breaks lower leaving a fair value gap, if you were thinking this was our traditional MSS on the monthly followed by a pullback, the rejection from the weekly fvg this week breaking the low of 27 Nov '23 violates it. Based on this narrative I'll be shifting my focus to 99.578 as the next draw on liquidity but I'll have the gap that formed between 03-17 July '23 in mind, as an inversion gap on the weekly, if there's some strength left in the dollar to push higher we might spot signs of bullish in that but for now I want to see lower prices.
DAILY
Here we have a bearish break in structure
What we can expect is a pullback into premium (Above 50% Fib Level) to present swing/intermediate-term shorts to 99.578.
Lower Prices on DXY = Lower Prices on USDXXX = Higher Prices on XXXUSD
Invert this and you have EURUSD
Hope you found this insightful. There's more where that came from.
Now let's get into it.
MONTHLY
We saw price break above 01 May '23, now it's traded back into the range.
This can be interpreted in 2 different ways
1. A bullish break in market structure followed by a pullback/retracement
2. A run on stops (buyside liquidity resting above 105.883) and then continue down into the lows
Now to me, picking a side on this timeframe wouldn't be wise because the price action here is subjective
WEEKLY
On this timeframe, I have the year divided into Quarters(4). 3months/Quarter
Jan-Mar (Q1) April-Jun (Q2) Jul-Sept (Q3) Oct-Dec (Q4)
The highs of these quarters are my dealing ranges. 80% of the time, the market tends to reverse after trading above or below them. So moving forward with that idea in mind, let's come up with a narrative
We can argue that the bull run on the dollar was a product of it trading below 100.788 (Previous Quarter's Low), after that ran straight up to 104.699 and ultimately took out 105.883 (First Quarter's High). What happens next?
Mind you, we're in this year's fourth quarter hence the high and low of the previous quarter is our new dealing range (107.348 and 99.578) but note how the high of our dealing range wasn't breached yet the dollar breaks lower. This is where we have the light bulb hovering above our heads.. yes, weakness. DXY breaks lower leaving a fair value gap, if you were thinking this was our traditional MSS on the monthly followed by a pullback, the rejection from the weekly fvg this week breaking the low of 27 Nov '23 violates it. Based on this narrative I'll be shifting my focus to 99.578 as the next draw on liquidity but I'll have the gap that formed between 03-17 July '23 in mind, as an inversion gap on the weekly, if there's some strength left in the dollar to push higher we might spot signs of bullish in that but for now I want to see lower prices.
DAILY
Here we have a bearish break in structure
What we can expect is a pullback into premium (Above 50% Fib Level) to present swing/intermediate-term shorts to 99.578.
Lower Prices on DXY = Lower Prices on USDXXX = Higher Prices on XXXUSD
Invert this and you have EURUSD
Hope you found this insightful. There's more where that came from.