timwest

Buy the EEM versus a short in the SPY for 2014

BATS:EEM   ISHARES TRUST MSCI EMERGING MARKETS FUND
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There are times when one gets ahead of the other but it hasn't stayed that way forever. As the year-end is upon us, perhaps there is more potential in the next 12 months to be long the EEM (Emerging Markets) instead of the S&P500 .

Risk 10%, Goal 10%. Probability 75% (my impression) of profit.

Would anyone like to comment on the valuation disparity between these ETF's and make a fundamental analysis? Or, feel free to wait for my analysis.

Monday, December 16, 2013 10:28AM EST
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The drop to the low in relative performance was 8% - which is quite close to the 10% expected as the worst case scenario. That's how relative trades set up sometimes. It has turned the corner in dramatic fashion and has almost come back to breakeven here as of March 28, 2014.
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2use timwest
But its not out of the woods yet, although i already hear the news here and there about emerging markets.
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2use 2use
6 months later on this chart and the result is astounding - the gap widens...although EEM rans up and we feel a chance of SPY taking a considerable break from the run.
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