1. The S&P could rally and the EEM could rally less.
2. The S&P could continue to fall, and the EEM could fall more.
3. The S&P could stabilize, and the EEM could slide lower.
The risk isn't very high in this pair, but keep the risk to 3% and the upside is approximately 5%. You can see that they are 3.6% apart in performance since June ( EEM +8.48% - SPY +4.81% = 8.4-4.8 = 3.6)