oakman
Education

Civilian Employment to Population Ratio -great tool

FRED:EMRATIO   Civilian Employment-Population Ratio
The head and shoulders formation is a classic sell setup that traders are familiar with. A close below the neck line is a sell signal for traders. Well, as you can see this was a signal of an economic downturn and it predicted it in the summer before the market crash in the fall. This would have alerted people to prepare for the impending doom and for traders to sell short like Dr             . Michael Burry of Scion Capital did with his hedge fund. The market low was set in the spring but the employment low occurred later. The previous lows set in 1961 and 1975 gave an angled level of support at which the recent 2011 low was set. We are now at civilian employment to population ratio levels of 1985! Let that sink in, 1985. This was a severe economic crash that we have yet to recover from. This data is from 1948 until 2017. I wish it started with data before the crash of 1929. What pattern was given then to signal a crash? I think this is a chart to keep an eye on every now and again.
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