Hi All, this is my very first analysis but I feel like that I should share some of my ideas on what may happen in the next two days.
At the moment EOS is leading the pack, so I am using it as a leading indicator to show how rest of crypto markets may move. Based on the trend lines, there are not much rooms to move, so I am expecting price movement to become tighter until a big move occurs, which should be within the next 48 hours.
I will outline three scenarios and conditions of which that it may occur below:
Scenario 1 - Real Breakout
This is what most of people wants to see and it would mean the start of the bull market with big uptrend to follow. Rest of cryptos will boom.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD will need to clear through $4.5 resistance line with BIG volume (volume will need to exceed the previous high)
2. RSI will be higher than the previous high
3. BTCUSD will clear through 4100 resistance and heading towards 5000 or more.
Scenario 2 - Fake Breakout
I think this may be the most likely scenario of them all, and creating a bull trap for people who think the bull market is here.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD breakouts but stop at $4.5 resistance line
2. EOSUSD Volume doesn't go pass previous high
2. RSI will be diverging, i.e. making a lower high
3. BTCUSD will clear through 4100 resistance but will stop short at 4500ish.
Scenario 3 - No Breakout
I put a low probability on this one but it is still a possibilities, since there is a not so perfect H&S pattern forming.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD do not breakouts but instead made a lower low (so upward trend lines will be broken)
2. Either no volume (then prices will drag on for more than 48 hours and there is no breakout on other cryptos, then a big drop down) or high volume sell (big drop down straight away)
2. BTCUSD will not go past 4100 resistance but instead revisiting 3800 or make a lower low as well
So I think the main message is that we should look at EOSUSD to determine whether there will be a breakout in the next 48 hours in the crypto market since it is acting as a leading indicator. And look at the volume to see if it is a real or fake breakout.
Good luck all and have fun trading!
At the moment EOS is leading the pack, so I am using it as a leading indicator to show how rest of crypto markets may move. Based on the trend lines, there are not much rooms to move, so I am expecting price movement to become tighter until a big move occurs, which should be within the next 48 hours.
I will outline three scenarios and conditions of which that it may occur below:
Scenario 1 - Real Breakout
This is what most of people wants to see and it would mean the start of the bull market with big uptrend to follow. Rest of cryptos will boom.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD will need to clear through $4.5 resistance line with BIG volume (volume will need to exceed the previous high)
2. RSI will be higher than the previous high
3. BTCUSD will clear through 4100 resistance and heading towards 5000 or more.
Scenario 2 - Fake Breakout
I think this may be the most likely scenario of them all, and creating a bull trap for people who think the bull market is here.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD breakouts but stop at $4.5 resistance line
2. EOSUSD Volume doesn't go pass previous high
2. RSI will be diverging, i.e. making a lower high
3. BTCUSD will clear through 4100 resistance but will stop short at 4500ish.
Scenario 3 - No Breakout
I put a low probability on this one but it is still a possibilities, since there is a not so perfect H&S pattern forming.
I think there are few conditions required for this to occur:
1. EOSUSD do not breakouts but instead made a lower low (so upward trend lines will be broken)
2. Either no volume (then prices will drag on for more than 48 hours and there is no breakout on other cryptos, then a big drop down) or high volume sell (big drop down straight away)
2. BTCUSD will not go past 4100 resistance but instead revisiting 3800 or make a lower low as well
So I think the main message is that we should look at EOSUSD to determine whether there will be a breakout in the next 48 hours in the crypto market since it is acting as a leading indicator. And look at the volume to see if it is a real or fake breakout.
Good luck all and have fun trading!
Comment:
the bulls are showing early sign of weakness here. At the moment, the price is following the bull trap scenario, although it is still early stage to make the call. The volume hasn't exceeded the previous high and the RSI is starting to show bearish divergence. This pattern is showing on BTCUSD too and it is probably the clearest on LTCUSD, which used to be one of the leading indicators too.
I would say there is still a bit of time of the bull run but in about a week's time, the big direction for cryptos should be decided. I would keep a watch on ETH too, with ETH upgrade coming in, 1st March could be the turning point i.e. if it well then another big leg up, or if not as good as anticipated then a big leg down. Right now the market has priced in a lot optimism so just be mindful of the downside risks. I am expecting the trading range for EOSUSD to be around 4.5 - 4.2. If it clear through 4.5 then the next indicator will be BTCUSD clear through 4500. Until these happens I wouldn't call this REAL breakout just yet.
Good Luck!
the bulls are showing early sign of weakness here. At the moment, the price is following the bull trap scenario, although it is still early stage to make the call. The volume hasn't exceeded the previous high and the RSI is starting to show bearish divergence. This pattern is showing on BTCUSD too and it is probably the clearest on LTCUSD, which used to be one of the leading indicators too.
I would say there is still a bit of time of the bull run but in about a week's time, the big direction for cryptos should be decided. I would keep a watch on ETH too, with ETH upgrade coming in, 1st March could be the turning point i.e. if it well then another big leg up, or if not as good as anticipated then a big leg down. Right now the market has priced in a lot optimism so just be mindful of the downside risks. I am expecting the trading range for EOSUSD to be around 4.5 - 4.2. If it clear through 4.5 then the next indicator will be BTCUSD clear through 4500. Until these happens I wouldn't call this REAL breakout just yet.
Good Luck!
Comment:
what a rollercoaster weekend that was! But I am sure we have all been there before. I was saying that the volume was not enough to break $4.50 level and it was looking like a fake move. And look at what happened in the next few hours. Ouch. To be honest, I wasn't expect the move to happen this quickly and drop this much. This is very much a forced move to liquidate a lot of long positions. Market manipulations at its finest, and we have seen this repeatedly when the volume are low. We really need to have some solid volume to break their games and it is becoming increasingly difficult as many retail investors are getting sick of the market and stopped trading (hence lower trade volume).
Here is my latest view on EOSUSD and since the whole market is very correlated anyway this would be my view on the whole market too. Right now we are very similar to Sep 18 (see yellow circle) after a similar forced drop. So we should expect similar movement assuming no more BART moves where TA just doesn't work anymore:
1. EOSUSD shouldn't make a lower low from here, instead it should be making higher lows
2. EOSUSD won't be able to break through $4.5 level, instead it probably will make lower highs
3. after few weeks of consolidations when the trading range becomes tighter, a breakout is most likely to occur then, but this could be up or down. For a real breakout, EOSUSD needs to clear through $4.5 with convincing volume. If the volume is getting smaller and there is no clear accumulation at lower lows then we might see a big down move like Nov 14th 2018 again.
Press like if you would like to see more updates. I normally quite busy but I would make time to share more ideas if you guys are interested. Good luck trading!
Here is my latest view on EOSUSD and since the whole market is very correlated anyway this would be my view on the whole market too. Right now we are very similar to Sep 18 (see yellow circle) after a similar forced drop. So we should expect similar movement assuming no more BART moves where TA just doesn't work anymore:
1. EOSUSD shouldn't make a lower low from here, instead it should be making higher lows
2. EOSUSD won't be able to break through $4.5 level, instead it probably will make lower highs
3. after few weeks of consolidations when the trading range becomes tighter, a breakout is most likely to occur then, but this could be up or down. For a real breakout, EOSUSD needs to clear through $4.5 with convincing volume. If the volume is getting smaller and there is no clear accumulation at lower lows then we might see a big down move like Nov 14th 2018 again.
Press like if you would like to see more updates. I normally quite busy but I would make time to share more ideas if you guys are interested. Good luck trading!
However, like I said there are still 2 scenarios possible from here and one of them is a bull trap which we should monitor carefully. Next level to watch is around $4.5 mark, volume wise it would need to exceed the previous daily high to confirm if it is the real breakout. RSI is still looking like bearish divergence so we need a lot more volume still, but we still have a more time to get confirmation on the pattern.
Sometime the most simple technical indicators are the most powerful ones. I hope you guys liked this and have fun trading!