EROS a mid-to-long-term gap fill candidate with earnings Oct 8
EROS is a Bollywood production company making big moves to try to dominate India's booming streaming market. Eros recently went on a 200% run after signing several major streaming contracts, including a deal with Microsoft to stream Eros content on the Azure platform. The stock price then cut in half as it first pulled back from overbought territory, then broke down even further on news that the company took on a $27.5 million debt due in 2020.
(This is something that often happens after announcement of a new product offering: the stock price initially shoots up, then breaks down on news of a new shares or senior notes offering to raise capital for manufacturing or marketing the new product. Shorting cash-poor companies after a big product announcement runs up the stock price wouldn't be a bad strategy.)
Anyway, for the moment Eros has found a floor around 1.80. It has support from there all the way down to about 1.14, with the strongest support nodes around 1.65 and 1.32. This is a decent time to take a small position for a mid-term swing. The stock is likely to get further news boosts as it implements its streaming deals and launches its content on the various platforms.
One short-term risk is the earnings report on October 8. Eros is reporting earnings later than usual, which often bodes ill for earnings results. (Late earnings tend to be worse than expected, whereas early earnings tend to be better than expected.) If Eros's earnings miss, the stock is likely to break down to one of its lower support levels-- perhaps even the very bottom of the support range. I would look at that as an entry opportunity. So if you do take a small position now, save enough cash to at least triple the size of the position after earnings if the price breaks down.
In the event that Eros beats earnings and/or begins to run up again on implementation news, it's got plenty of room to run. 3.00, 4.00, and 5.00 are all conceivable in the mid-term. In the longer term, this stock has the potential to break out above 5.49 and then very quickly fill the gap up to 7.23.
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(This is something that often happens after announcement of a new product offering: the stock price initially shoots up, then breaks down on news of a new shares or senior notes offering to raise capital for manufacturing or marketing the new product. Shorting cash-poor companies after a big product announcement runs up the stock price wouldn't be a bad strategy.)
Anyway, for the moment Eros has found a floor around 1.80. It has support from there all the way down to about 1.14, with the strongest support nodes around 1.65 and 1.32. This is a decent time to take a small position for a mid-term swing. The stock is likely to get further news boosts as it implements its streaming deals and launches its content on the various platforms.
One short-term risk is the earnings report on October 8. Eros is reporting earnings later than usual, which often bodes ill for earnings results. (Late earnings tend to be worse than expected, whereas early earnings tend to be better than expected.) If Eros's earnings miss, the stock is likely to break down to one of its lower support levels-- perhaps even the very bottom of the support range. I would look at that as an entry opportunity. So if you do take a small position now, save enough cash to at least triple the size of the position after earnings if the price breaks down.
In the event that Eros beats earnings and/or begins to run up again on implementation news, it's got plenty of room to run. 3.00, 4.00, and 5.00 are all conceivable in the mid-term. In the longer term, this stock has the potential to break out above 5.49 and then very quickly fill the gap up to 7.23.
(For weekly news and educational videos, check out my new YouTube show, Wall Street Petting Zoo!)
Comment:
EROS reached its first major support at 1.65 this afternoon.
Comment:
An article on Seeking Alpha estimates the market value of EROS's content at $1-2 billion, well above the current $182 million market cap. Even with the risk of further dilution by share offerings (to an allowable max of 200 million shares), the fair value is still between $5 and $10 per share.