First attempt for price action to penetrate 2530 (previous beak down point) was not successful. The idea is that a failed trading range creates supply (Investors/traders that are caught long will look to liquidate once price gets them to break-even). The Bots and others know this..... they will attempt to front run this selling pressure. There were some massive buy programs that hit the tape (Re-balancing, window dressing, performance chasing ....who knows or cares) but were met with selling.
Outlook:
Bear Case: Growth slowing, Inflation non-existent, credit spreads elevated, Yield curve flattening, liquidity being drained from system (Fed tightening, purchase program wind down)
Bull Case: Stocks have been slammed and some valuations are becoming attractive
Macro Musing:
The 9 year bull run in stocks needs to be digested. Some back and fill is healthy. Ultimately, the fed taking away the punch bowl from the system so this market can stand on its own two feet would be a good thing in the long run. Lets just hope this deleveraging is beautiful or the smelly stuff can hit the fan. I see S&P 500 prices testing the 2150 level assuming the fed doesn't feel the need to act again. Good luck out there!
Outlook:
Bear Case: Growth slowing, Inflation non-existent, credit spreads elevated, Yield curve flattening, liquidity being drained from system (Fed tightening, purchase program wind down)
Bull Case: Stocks have been slammed and some valuations are becoming attractive
Macro Musing:
The 9 year bull run in stocks needs to be digested. Some back and fill is healthy. Ultimately, the fed taking away the punch bowl from the system so this market can stand on its own two feet would be a good thing in the long run. Lets just hope this deleveraging is beautiful or the smelly stuff can hit the fan. I see S&P 500 prices testing the 2150 level assuming the fed doesn't feel the need to act again. Good luck out there!
Comment:
Back into the Box. Next area of Interest is the 2615 area. Trend Breakdowns have a penchant for testing the underbelly of the previous trend. In this case the long term log trend underbelly is the 2725 area. If the bulls capture that, they will force me to rethink my position.