Bear flags in the S&P500. Bull flags in BTC
Well there sure is a lot of hype about BTC this weekend huh? Huge conference for institutions coming up early Feb. We have billionaires like Jack & Lord Musk changing their bios to #bitcoin.
The S&P 500 technical indicators appear bearish, not making any recommendations but I have entered a leverage short on the S&P500 & Nasday. I have been called a permabull as I far back as my long at 2700... and have been riding the bull ever since this wall of worry - up until now.
I think I know a bear market when I see one. I could make the boring case on how fundamentals are out of control...but lets really drill into the TA in this read. Mainly focusing on longer TF analysis from this point onward.
You should make up your mind for yourself on if the market appears bearish, but my estimation is that we may see a big drop in equities and it will be blamed on WSB. I think that, that would be silly for us with an IQ at least high enough that you could tag it with a pair of dice and I'm still able to point the fault at the hands of the risk management executives at the hedge funds that ...made a significant blunder along with any broker that agreed to any trade post 100% of the shares being short.
Like how in the world, did a manipulative broker like that not think to just introduce commissions to those stocks, or just widen the spreads super far out? Oh no this was much more serious than that. Nope...the brokers played beyond dirty and did so right away. In my opinion they manipulated the market which is breaking the law. I do have to wonder what is to come of that Sith leader over at RobbingHood...
https://www.pcmag.com/news/sec-signals-investigation-of-robinhood-over-blocking-stock-buys
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-gamestop-amc/card/75jD2LfWtTDqSijoBaLm?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR1W1oUNJIuaLJRDQnZJTP4mKNJ0F6AZ2ujr-Q8SXmQCv_lnDvBIdNBOAAQ
Regardless we see a topping pattern on the small time frame. We see pivot points holding support on the daily.
Bearish RSI/STOCH confluence - bearish along with the price falling below both moving averages indicating a further fall to come. no attempt at even tagging the 20dma - which in my mind is indicative of the mean. When this occurs I typically see price having a tendency to follow the trend very strongly.
Devils advocate here.. at this support zone - repeatedly this is where I have called to load up or get long. This is a great area for support and is often a moment to load up on equities on discount. One of my favorite setups here. But I am not buying it. I actually opened a short this time. I will freely admit I respect the bull case as I have played this setup many times - going to pass on the bull take this time around..
GL trading in these wild times.
Amidst all these bear flags.. I must direct your attention to a bull flag:
https://www.google.com/search?q=bull+flag&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS931US934&sxsrf=ALeKk039Gaej8OQ2grl2hkjYYSbOH-alFQ:1612079507283&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi4_IWT2MXuAhV8FVkFHSCGDBoQ_AUoAXoECB8QAw&biw=2560&bih=1240
Comment:
Almost forgot to mention the strong sell off in financials. A leading indicator of a drop if ever there was one. Consumer Defensive and Financials were two of the worst three performers within the past 3 months.
Comment:
Well... i was wrong. Closed short.