ES/SPY WEEKEND Mar 28-Apr1
Here is the weekend look at the S&P going into the week of Mar28th – Apr 1st. Last week the ES closed another 1.86% higher pushing the total gain from the Feb 22nd low to 10.5%. Price closed the week above the 200sma and above the neutral (tan box) and is now less than 6% off the ATH.
With the close above the neutral my bias has shifted to bullish. This week price needs to hold above the neutral and 200 sma to maintain my bullish bias. If it does my targets above would be the Feb 7th pivot at 4585 and then the 886 fib at about 4700. Be aware that price may reverse and fall back into the neutral before pushing higher. If that happens, I expect a retest of the 200 sma. Below the 200sma I would no longer be bullish and a move to the bottom of the neutral again would be my downside target. We have seen a spectacular move up the last few weeks so some consolidation at this point is reasonable.
This week we have the potential a potential Ukraine peace deal coming out of talks in Turkey Starting Monday. Both sides had softened their tone somewhat and the market should react strongly to any positive news leading to a continued short squeeze higher. Also, any data pointing to an easing of inflationary pressures would be a strong catalyst to the upside. Of course, negative news related to either could easily send price back down quickly. As I have mentioned before, this market has the potential to explode in either direction at any time so continued caution is warranted. Watch for my intraday updates as thing play out.
Please like my posts if you find them helpful and follow my on Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader for more updates.
Weekly Events>>>
Monday... US Budget release & Ukraine/Russia Talks begin
Tuesday... US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS
Wednesday... US GDP & Oil Inventories
Thursday... Consumer Spending, Initial Jobs Claims & US PCE
Friday... Non Farm Payrolls & Average earnings + ISM Manufacturing
Notable Earnings>>>
Monday... PLAY
Tuesday... MKC, CHWY, LULU, MU, RH
Wednesday... FIVE, PATH
Thursday... WBA
Bullish Notes>>>
200sma within striking distance
Possible Ukraine/Russian Peace agreement
Potential drop in Oil price due to Chinese Lockdown
Yields Fall
Bearish Notes>>>
Price may reject at 200sma
Ukraine/Russia talks fail
Yields continue to rise
Oil prices continue to rise
Increased inflation concerns
Here is the weekend look at the S&P going into the week of Mar28th – Apr 1st. Last week the ES closed another 1.86% higher pushing the total gain from the Feb 22nd low to 10.5%. Price closed the week above the 200sma and above the neutral (tan box) and is now less than 6% off the ATH.
With the close above the neutral my bias has shifted to bullish. This week price needs to hold above the neutral and 200 sma to maintain my bullish bias. If it does my targets above would be the Feb 7th pivot at 4585 and then the 886 fib at about 4700. Be aware that price may reverse and fall back into the neutral before pushing higher. If that happens, I expect a retest of the 200 sma. Below the 200sma I would no longer be bullish and a move to the bottom of the neutral again would be my downside target. We have seen a spectacular move up the last few weeks so some consolidation at this point is reasonable.
This week we have the potential a potential Ukraine peace deal coming out of talks in Turkey Starting Monday. Both sides had softened their tone somewhat and the market should react strongly to any positive news leading to a continued short squeeze higher. Also, any data pointing to an easing of inflationary pressures would be a strong catalyst to the upside. Of course, negative news related to either could easily send price back down quickly. As I have mentioned before, this market has the potential to explode in either direction at any time so continued caution is warranted. Watch for my intraday updates as thing play out.
Please like my posts if you find them helpful and follow my on Twitter @Sea2Sky_trader for more updates.
Weekly Events>>>
Monday... US Budget release & Ukraine/Russia Talks begin
Tuesday... US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS
Wednesday... US GDP & Oil Inventories
Thursday... Consumer Spending, Initial Jobs Claims & US PCE
Friday... Non Farm Payrolls & Average earnings + ISM Manufacturing
Notable Earnings>>>
Monday... PLAY
Tuesday... MKC, CHWY, LULU, MU, RH
Wednesday... FIVE, PATH
Thursday... WBA
Bullish Notes>>>
200sma within striking distance
Possible Ukraine/Russian Peace agreement
Potential drop in Oil price due to Chinese Lockdown
Yields Fall
Bearish Notes>>>
Price may reject at 200sma
Ukraine/Russia talks fail
Yields continue to rise
Oil prices continue to rise
Increased inflation concerns
Comment:
ES pushed above the neutral(tan box) and broke the 4586 pivot finding resistance just below the 786 fib. Price has pulled back into the top of the neutral where it may find support. If it falls back inside the neutral the 200sma and 21 ema are next support.
