Sub Title: ES Trajectory, Pinky Toes, and my Disdain for Market Analysts
In my trading room, I believe my members think I’m a “negative nelly”.
I’ve tried to explain I’m actually an optimist, but to read my market analysis each day, twice a day, makes that a hard sell. That brings me to where I wish to start this article…and that is my disdain for Wall Street firms market analysts. Ever wonder why at market tops they reek of optimism but at market lows, they are doomsayers? I won’t conclude they’re a nefarious bunch, but if I'm objective it has to be one of two things.
1. Either they’re misinforming the public, or 2. They’re stupid.
Sounds harsh I know…but the senate hearings in 2009 between Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs, and former Senator Carl Levin discussing how he could condone Goldman Sachs selling products they knew was “crap” to his trusted customers still resonates with me. So excuse me if a part of me is dubious that Wall Street "smart people" use those smarts towards the best interest of the greater investing public.
However, I see the stuff that comes in on my news feed like.
Ed Yardeni expects a fourth quarter ‘Santa Claus rally’ for stocks that will send the S&P above 4600
Oppenhiemer's John Stoltzfus breaks down his S&P500 4900 year end price target
Or my favorite punching bag. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Partners advising the public to buy FAANG stocks just yesterday.
In their defense, I don't think they're stupid so that's leaves the former. Now, one can say they have an obligation to make money for their shareholders, not be good stewards of counter party assets and their decisions. I agree 100%...but it does seem rather deliberate. You see, it is the small retail trader that generally listens to CNBC, and by extension, all those analysts. Personally, I think if you're trading the indices, or futures (if you're still reading this you probably do) I will say that I believe CNBC is the most detrimental source of information you can absorb.
Some of you reading this may disagree. Ever hear of the smart money dumb money indicator? A quick use of the Google Machine reveals the definition of the indicator boils down to the retail trader being the dumb money. I would be considered a retail trader, most of you reading this right now, would be considered retail traders. It is apparent that we are among the most disrespected participants in the markets. I would not consider myself to be some anomalistic genius, but my money is not deployed in a manner that is dumb…. that I can say with the utmost confidence.
Nonetheless, we appear to be the most disrespected participants in the markets.
Now before you draw the conclusion that this article is about me being smarter than Wall Street analysts, or if you read till the end, I have something to sell you...you're wrong. Indulge me as I make my case, present facts, and then you decide.
In my trading room, I believe my members think I’m a “negative nelly”.
I’ve tried to explain I’m actually an optimist, but to read my market analysis each day, twice a day, makes that a hard sell. That brings me to where I wish to start this article…and that is my disdain for Wall Street firms market analysts. Ever wonder why at market tops they reek of optimism but at market lows, they are doomsayers? I won’t conclude they’re a nefarious bunch, but if I'm objective it has to be one of two things.
1. Either they’re misinforming the public, or 2. They’re stupid.
Sounds harsh I know…but the senate hearings in 2009 between Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs, and former Senator Carl Levin discussing how he could condone Goldman Sachs selling products they knew was “crap” to his trusted customers still resonates with me. So excuse me if a part of me is dubious that Wall Street "smart people" use those smarts towards the best interest of the greater investing public.
However, I see the stuff that comes in on my news feed like.
Ed Yardeni expects a fourth quarter ‘Santa Claus rally’ for stocks that will send the S&P above 4600
Oppenhiemer's John Stoltzfus breaks down his S&P500 4900 year end price target
Or my favorite punching bag. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Partners advising the public to buy FAANG stocks just yesterday.
In their defense, I don't think they're stupid so that's leaves the former. Now, one can say they have an obligation to make money for their shareholders, not be good stewards of counter party assets and their decisions. I agree 100%...but it does seem rather deliberate. You see, it is the small retail trader that generally listens to CNBC, and by extension, all those analysts. Personally, I think if you're trading the indices, or futures (if you're still reading this you probably do) I will say that I believe CNBC is the most detrimental source of information you can absorb.
Some of you reading this may disagree. Ever hear of the smart money dumb money indicator? A quick use of the Google Machine reveals the definition of the indicator boils down to the retail trader being the dumb money. I would be considered a retail trader, most of you reading this right now, would be considered retail traders. It is apparent that we are among the most disrespected participants in the markets. I would not consider myself to be some anomalistic genius, but my money is not deployed in a manner that is dumb…. that I can say with the utmost confidence.
Nonetheless, we appear to be the most disrespected participants in the markets.
Now before you draw the conclusion that this article is about me being smarter than Wall Street analysts, or if you read till the end, I have something to sell you...you're wrong. Indulge me as I make my case, present facts, and then you decide.
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