ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade prep (Apr3-7)
Back from vacay so resuming my usual schedule. Here the levels for this week. Watch for updates as the market plays out. Very bullish price action to close the week. Much of the momentum was drive by mega cap tech and potential short covering in the beaten down growth names. If the big names stall out watch for potential pull back to breakout point and ema cloud. ES needs to hold the green box and upward trendline for bullish continuation. Trade well and have a great week.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 3.22% gain last week after trading in a range of 157 points.
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• ES reclaimed the long term downward trendline
• Now 15% off the October lows but has not made new yearly high yet
• 50 SMA is firmly above the 200 SMA (momentum ETFs flip to buy)
• Dec 13th high remain key level to watch. A move above would be very bullish.
• Positive weekly performance by all Sectors with XLE (+6.34) & XLY (+5.62) leading
• Bullish momentum driven by believe that banking crisis is over and Fed will pause or lower rates going forward
• Long term bias has moved from BEARISH to NEUTRAL
• Light week for earnings.
• Start of the new month and new quarter (potential new money inflows)
• Most watched econ data this week will be Non- Farm Payrolls on Friday
• April is a historically strong month for the S&P
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending
Tuesday US Factory Orders & JOLT Job Openings
Wednesday US Trade Balance, US ADP Employment & US Services PMI + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rates
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday LEVI, LW, STZ
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
ES is back above the long term downward trendline
ES has reclaimed the 200 SMA and Key 4100 level
Price above 9/21/55 emas
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Giant ascending triangle base pattern forming into Dec13th high.
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yield and USD
Potential positive reaction to PMI & NFP data
Potential beginning of month/qrt inflows
BEARISH NOTES
Price is extended to start week.
Stoch (5,1) is very overbought
Price may need to p/b and retest breakout zone
Potential negative reaction to PMI & NFP data
No earnings catalysts
Mega Cap stocks are overbought
Potential short term profit taking
ES did not make a new yearly high like NQ
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 3.22% gain last week after trading in a range of 157 points.
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• ES reclaimed the long term downward trendline
• Now 15% off the October lows but has not made new yearly high yet
• 50 SMA is firmly above the 200 SMA (momentum ETFs flip to buy)
• Dec 13th high remain key level to watch. A move above would be very bullish.
• Positive weekly performance by all Sectors with XLE (+6.34) & XLY (+5.62) leading
• Bullish momentum driven by believe that banking crisis is over and Fed will pause or lower rates going forward
• Long term bias has moved from BEARISH to NEUTRAL
• Light week for earnings.
• Start of the new month and new quarter (potential new money inflows)
• Most watched econ data this week will be Non- Farm Payrolls on Friday
• April is a historically strong month for the S&P
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending
Tuesday US Factory Orders & JOLT Job Openings
Wednesday US Trade Balance, US ADP Employment & US Services PMI + EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rates
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday LEVI, LW, STZ
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
ES is back above the long term downward trendline
ES has reclaimed the 200 SMA and Key 4100 level
Price above 9/21/55 emas
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Giant ascending triangle base pattern forming into Dec13th high.
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yield and USD
Potential positive reaction to PMI & NFP data
Potential beginning of month/qrt inflows
BEARISH NOTES
Price is extended to start week.
Stoch (5,1) is very overbought
Price may need to p/b and retest breakout zone
Potential negative reaction to PMI & NFP data
No earnings catalysts
Mega Cap stocks are overbought
Potential short term profit taking
ES did not make a new yearly high like NQ
Comment:
Here is a look at the large ascending triangle on the S&P. I've drawn it on the SPX so the levels are different than the ES but the setup is similar. I am using the Dec 13th high as a break out level b/c it has had so many touches in this zone. It is resistance until its not but I believe would be very bullish price manages to break though.
Comment:
Watching the downward trendline here as $ES_F pushes toward the Dec 13th high. Same as NQ. Must keep an eye on the price action in the Megas. Weakness in key names like $AAPL could bring broad mrk down.
Comment:
Weakness in mega caps has pulled $ES_F down. NQ now at 9 ema support. ES still has downside room to it 9 ema. Large cap tech is leading these moves so watch the big names for clues on direction.
