#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.17 - 03.22
Last Week :
Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area.
This Week :
This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ?
As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for.
For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets.
Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50
Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area.
This Week :
This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ?
As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for.
For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets.
Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50
Comment:
Market pushed over Key Resistance and 19.75-15.75 target giving a push outside the Edge again into higher target but we did have Supply above the Edge which gave us a return trip back inside. This week might be a tricky week to trade and not a week to push things as we are in Key HTF area, we still have short covering and early shorts looking for downside that are keeping us up but they aren't strong buyers to give us good continuation higher from here. We are now inside 5249.75 - 5199.75 Range, we have gap below us that we weren't able to fill today and Supply above 5234.25. Watch for possibly more consolidation in this range and if we don't get the selling tonight to get us back under 5204 - 5199.75 area then maybe tomorrow RTH if we build up enough Supply we could try for that gap fill again. For now we can't expect too much continuation from these areas until market shows its ready. Going into tomorrow we have T2 range under 5204 which may give us enough Support to stay above and continue trading around this Edge area. We could spend time inside todays range and maybe set up for a gap fill at some point in RTH. For a higher targets from the Edge we would want to see acceptance over 5234.25 - 30.25 and take out next Key Resistance, until then we can continue chopping around here building up more supply.
Comment:
Looks like ON Sessions got nice consolidation at the bottom of the Edge, if we have built up enough supply we could see a break of this 5204-5199.75 area and get continuation down towards VAH, if that will be the case then we watch lower levels down to it for continuation. 5174.25 - 70.50 would be RTH Support for continuation towards the Mean. If we can't get under 5204-5199.75 yet then we can continue balancing above it until we will be ready to attempt move above 5219.75-15.75 or below again. For now supply keeps getting trapped above us and as mentioned Sunday holding under the Edge area can bring in more weakness especially since we now have failed over the Edge again and spent more time consolidating.
Comment:
Only had enough supply to get us down to 5188.25 - 84.25 target, VAH got front ran by covering again. Going into RTH we are now inside T2 range and inside 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range. Tomorrow being Fed Day we could stay in this area between the Edge and VAH and continue balancing until we will be ready to move, since VAH got front ran on first test we could build up enough and eventually go for another test of it later unless we can accept back over 5204.25 and start holding inside the Edge.
Comment:
Market was able to get through 5204 - 5199.75 Key Area again and held above, once we filled the gap and pushed through 19.75 - 15.75 more buying came in to push us to higher targets over the Edge again, we hit 34.25 - 30.25 where we got afternoon consolidation and end of day push through up to next Key Resistance again with a tag of its bottom to the tick at 44.75. Going into tonight/tomorrow we have Fed which could make it tricky to trade but what we do know is we are still in this 5250 - 5150 Balance from last week, so far we have supply building up in this area but every flush lower find covering which takes us back up, we are now inside 5249.75 - 5199.75 Range again and 5204.25 - 5199.75 has continued to act as a mean from last week as well. We are now at the top of this balance and few things we can watch for are if more buying comes in at these levels to push us through next Key Resistance over 5250s into VAL and Value of new HTF Range or if we fail to push through or fail to accept and come back in, if we come back in we could target a move back towards the Edge and we would watch lower levels for continuation with 5204.25 - 5199.75 Being a Key Spot again, if stronger volume comes in we have that I would say weak low down in lower VAH from Friday and follow through to the Mean. If we do accept over next Key Resistance first target to watch would be 5264.75 - 60.75 and if we get over we have 5279.25 - 75.25. If we end up holding this range then we can look for back and forth balance inside current range where we would just trade level to level. I am leaving towards us not accepting over current balance top and coming back in but we will have to see what we get, if we get any volume at all or if we end up spending whole day in some smaller range since we are now pretty much inside T2 and Previous Day Range so somewhat of inside day is possible as well.
Comment:
Market has now accepted in out new HTF Range as we had consolidation under VAL and a strong push over it today with Fed that gave us continuation higher through the Mean towards VAH and we can expect to trade within this bigger range now. Currently price pushed into new intraday range as well which is 5341 - 5290.25 and we are coming up into VAH this is where we will be watching if we accept and start trading within this intraday range or get back under Key Area of 5295.50 - 5290.25 into previous rage. Current range levels to watch are 5310.50 - 06.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 // Key Resistance 5341 - 5336. IF we get back under into previous intraday range we will use levels posted earlier.