#ES_F Day Trading Prep For Friday 1.26.24 and or Next Week

Are we finally finding our top or do we have more juice to squeeze ? Lets check the price action and structure over last few days for our clues.

Yesterday we tested a Key Edge of the new range that we have accepted in when we broke out of 4839-29 Resistance. First test smart longs of course took profits as that is perfect area to unload size and we got a sell back down to VAH, whoever didn't get out got left holding the potato.
Last night Globex spent all night cleaning and accumulating Supply at the top of VAH, morning Data gave us the push towards the Edge but this time selling came in right from 4925 and was strong enough for another push to VAH. Globex Cost Basis held and we got short covering bounce back to the Edge again PING PONG right! Got to love mechanical markets ran by algos, easy to look at it after its all set and done a bit different to trade.
So our question right now is are we finally trapping size longs here for a possible short term or longer term who knows? Top and we can see a nice trade back towards VAH and maybe the MEAN or do we have more buying that can get us over 4920-25 and hold keep us there?
I am leaning towards a move to VAH and if bottom Cost Basis breaks we can see how much candy falls out.
Downside would be invalidated with a move over 4920-25.
Downside Triggers or possible safe areas to look for entries are 4910-7.50-4
Targets under
4892-88 If Breaks 4875-69 KEY Support, if breaks can see more selling.
Lets see if the move can happen tonight/tomorrow or if it will take its time and will play out next week, HAVE to break and accept under levels for any continuation.

Comment:

Careful if 4910-04 area holds tonight and we get over 4520-25 Instead, would have to as there still could be room to head for 4940s on the news, ideally for this we get under 4910 tonight and not take out Previous Day and T2 highs, if that happens there is a chance for a move towards Edge top with maybe push above it if enough buying comes in, if that happens need to be careful as that would be another area for profits taking. If we continue to Balance current range is 4925-4904

Comment:

Inventory is coming out, got through 10, through 7.50, can it continue lower here? Next possible targets are 4898.75 - 92 - 88 - 85.25 if the selling continues

Comment:

Watch out long if we fail again at 4925-20 thats KEY Resistance for today and failure here could give more selling back towards lower targets

Comment:

Over 20-25 Possible target is 4937-40 if we have enough buying

Comment:

IF 07-04 breaks we could see more downside today. 04-25+/- is still our current range, Over 20 things could get frisky to fill the previous Highs

Comment:

At this time of day we can say its most likely done with good moves and might be very choppy/balanced to finish off. Very possible to see continuation under 07-04 area next week with targets of 89.75 - 92 - 88 - 85.25 Unless markets can get over 4920-25 and accept BY tagging next level up at 4937. If not then we are still looking at overall weakness which can bring more selling for lower targets. Dont forget 4875-69 is KEY Support for any continuation lower if that goes then can see more downside. This market has been very slow so this could take some time to move but you never know it could do it in couple days next week we have to watch.

Comment:

Market opened with a flush into current Support, inventory is long over 4915, tonight we have to see if Support at 07.50-04 breaks and how much continuation we can get towards next targets and take out the Lows or will enough buying come in to keep us over Support. next level down is 4892-88 and Key Support is 4975-69

Comment:

This week need to be careful looking for entries early as PA is very slow which means moves could take a while to set up and actual continue from area to area, until then could continue grinding. Key Resistance 4925-20 // Current Resistance 4910-15 Area // Current Support 4907.50-04 // Lower Potential Support 4888-85 // Key Support 4875-69

Comment:

Over Key Resistance potential Target is 3937-40 if enough buying comes in

Comment:

Yesterday once market accepted over 4920 enough buying came in to push us towards next level up and through the Edge with a move outside of it. Globex has been consolidating and so far unable to take out next level up at 4955.75-52.50. We did make a push into new range yesterday and today we have to see if we accept in it which gives us 4972-67 As Key Resistance 4955.75-52.50 Current Resistance and 4940.50-37.75 Current Support, but If market cant hold over 4940-45 today and push out of 4955-52 then there is a chance to come back inside the Edge and we can then target Edge bottom at 4925-20 area which would be Key Spot if we do get there as if it doesnt hold there can be room to continue back towards VAH and lower Support targets at 4907.50-04 // 4898.75-92-88-85. If we do hold 4925-20 or are unable to test it then there is a chance to just balance over the Edge and only continuation higher if we take out 56 area.

Comment:

If we accept under 4925-20 Today, lower levels are 4907.50-04 // 4892-88-85 // Next Key Support 4875-69. If we do manage to stay over we have 4940-37.75 as Current Resistance and need to get over 4945 for strength to come back in, for now Supply is trapped above us and as mentioned yesterday if Market cant take out 4956.75-52.50 and stay over 45 that will bring in weakness.

Comment:

Fed brought the heat today, as discussed acceptance under 4925-20 Put us in lower range, first we got a flush to and under 4907.50-04 which provided Support at first then after the Fed we had Retest/Failure at 4925-20 which gave the continuation move towards lower targets which stopped right at next Key Support 4875-69. Now the question is do we have more Supply that will come out since we took out a few cost basis on the way down or will this be it? 4975-69 Is our Current Key Support and Mean area on HTF, Holding under 4885 will mean continued weakness which could bring more selling. If Current Support breaks lower areas to watch would be 4856-51.75 // 4839-35 and next Key Support would be at 4824-19, it would need to go for any continuation beyond that but enough volume could get us towards 4804-4787 area. Market has been really slow and grindy it could continue in Globex tonight and get some more RTH tomorrow but careful if we cant continue and selling stops and we hold this Current Key Support then we could stay in this current range and trade within todays levels and try to make our way back to VAH at 4885-98 area. For now possible destination is still lower BUT in slow choppy market it could take time to set up and move so have to trade what we get.

Comment:

4875-69 Support held Globex test and RTH retest after 98 flush into 75 in the morning, as mentioned that was our Key Support for the day and if holds then we need to watch out short and can expect to trade in 4925-20 - 4875-69 Range which we did, 25-20 was Key Resistance going into today and you wouldn't think Market had the strength to take it after yesterdays flush but we got right into the Resistance and had big push pretty much after the bell. We are again over Key Edge on HTF and our current range is 4972-67 - 4925-20, a lot will probably be expecting continuation tomorrow after day like today, we may get it but be careful trying to long as market may stay in current new range or even come back towards the Edge if the buying runs out as this is a good profit taking spot and we have weekend coming. Above us we have next range VAL its untested area so hard to get a good level but it should be around 4965-80s area. Levels to watch for tonight/Friday 4972-67 Key Resistance into next Range and VAL area, Current Resistance 4955.75-52.50, if we fail around these areas we can see if we trade back towards the Edge with lower levels being 4945-40.50-37.75 and Key Support at 4925.20

Comment:

Careful long from these areas if 4925-20 doesn't hold again, if we get back in lower range we use previous levels to look for continuation. If strong enough sell volume comes in we can head for lower VAH again and then see from there unless we hold here before the open and are able to stay over 4925-20