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S&P 500 to reach 4118 or 3990.5 before next bounce

Short
CME_MINI_DL:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
If S&P 500 closes below support level of 4291.25, which has held since July of 2021, then that would be confirmation of the following idea.

The S&P 500 is likely headed to 4118 or 3990.5, which are the fib extensions of the downtrend which began on Jan 4, 2022, marked as point A on the chart.

Points A, B, and C on the chart were used to create a "Trend-based Fib extension" with the same tool that is built into Trading View.

A close above 4291.25 would threaten to invalidate this idea.
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