Friday was second day of rally, I was expecting a pullback toward at below 4200, but the market only retraced about 60 points to 4230, then break the overnight high, and go straight up to close at high of 4384.5, since 4350 was breached and market even close above that, my primary count would be that we indeed already reached a bottom on 4101.75. Yes, I understand theoretically the wave (4) of (C) can stay valid until 4484.5 taken out, but most past fractals of all 10%+ pullback in the past few years were doing 3 waves instead of 5 waves, and the current one would be an ending diagonals if it remained as 5 waves, which is even rare. So although I still take it as a valid count, the odds of that happening is not high in my opinion.
With Sunday open 100+ points lower than Friday close and reached the important 4250 range, we already hit more than 38.2% of retracement of the two day rally. So technically this could be it for the immediate pullback, but I still want to see another c wave of this pullback toward 4200 range, maybe during Monday RTH session, that would fit the most common the pattern of rally after the bottom of 10%+ pullback reached. From there, we could easily breach 4600 before another pullback. But bulls need to take out 4484.5 to confirm there is no return. Next two days is important in my opinion, want to see sharp pullback to scare the bulls then V-shape reversal to trap the bears, remember market like to shake off most of participants before it is doing real moves.
With Sunday open 100+ points lower than Friday close and reached the important 4250 range, we already hit more than 38.2% of retracement of the two day rally. So technically this could be it for the immediate pullback, but I still want to see another c wave of this pullback toward 4200 range, maybe during Monday RTH session, that would fit the most common the pattern of rally after the bottom of 10%+ pullback reached. From there, we could easily breach 4600 before another pullback. But bulls need to take out 4484.5 to confirm there is no return. Next two days is important in my opinion, want to see sharp pullback to scare the bulls then V-shape reversal to trap the bears, remember market like to shake off most of participants before it is doing real moves.
Comment:
a continued move downside without breaching 4320 would be good for a deeper pullback toward 4160~4210