End of month, quarterly rebalancing and general retracements have resulted in the S&P rallying sharply over the past few days. The fundamental news remains bleak with much of the world economy shut down due to the pandemic. I am moving to cash and by the end of the day will be liquidated holding only a few oil stocks and a scattering of dividend plays that I like for the long term. Yesterday I entered into a TBT (2X short long bonds) as I feel TLT is topping.
SP is reaching a first target on a Fibonacci retracement level. The most recent move from 3137 to 2177 is retracing at a 50% level near 2660. Assuming that the market continues to be long term weak, this is my first sell point. Looking at the overall move from a high of 3406 to 2177, a 50% retracement would come in around 2792. The 50 day EMA will also be approaching this level in a few days so that would be an important level of resistance should we reach that level. I would likely be buying SPY puts or perhaps puts on certain stocks that don't look too good. Option premiums are very high at the moment so more efficient methods of shorting the market will be considered and posted.
Looking at stochastics levels on most stocks, on the monthly basis, they are turning down so it seems appropriate to hunker down, raise cash and wait for that moment when you are amazed at how cheap a stock can get.
SP is reaching a first target on a Fibonacci retracement level. The most recent move from 3137 to 2177 is retracing at a 50% level near 2660. Assuming that the market continues to be long term weak, this is my first sell point. Looking at the overall move from a high of 3406 to 2177, a 50% retracement would come in around 2792. The 50 day EMA will also be approaching this level in a few days so that would be an important level of resistance should we reach that level. I would likely be buying SPY puts or perhaps puts on certain stocks that don't look too good. Option premiums are very high at the moment so more efficient methods of shorting the market will be considered and posted.
Looking at stochastics levels on most stocks, on the monthly basis, they are turning down so it seems appropriate to hunker down, raise cash and wait for that moment when you are amazed at how cheap a stock can get.