ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Oct 2-6)

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a loss of 0.77 % after trading in a range of 105 pts.
  
• ES has dropped to the lower trendline
  
• ES closed at the Feb 2nd High and the 200 SMA
  
• ES closed last week below the 9/21/55 emas.
  
• Most sectors closed down to flat but the XLE finished up 1.2 % and XLU closed down 6.9%.
  
• 10 year bond yields are trading above the 2008 high at 4.57%.
  
• ES closed the month of Sept down 5.19%.
  
• ES completed a full compound correction into the lower trendline and Feb 2nd High.
  
• ES has fallen out of the bull zone to neutral.
  
• Many Fed Heads speak this week and there is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
  
• Beginning of new month. Oct has been seasonally stronger month than Sept the last 10 years.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US S&P PMI, US Construction Spending & Fed's Powell + 5 Fed Heads speak
  
• TUES US JOLTS Job Openings & Fed's Bostic speaks
  
• WED US ADP Employment, US PMI, US Factory Orders & EIA Crude Inventories + Fed's Goolsbee and Bowman
  
• THUR US Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims & Fed's Mester, Daly & Barr speak
  
• FRI US Unemployment Rate, US Average earnings & US Non Farm Payrolls.
  

EARNINGS

• MON Nothing notable
  
• TUES MKC
  
• WED Nothing notable
  
• THUR LEVI, LW, STZ
  
• FRI Nothing notable
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES starts the week a 200 SMA & Feb 2nd High support
  
• Potential bounce from lower trendline
  
• ES has completed a full compound correction
  
• Longer term uptrend remains in place if price does not pull back below the 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential postive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Head speeches
  
• Oct is seasonally stronger month than Sept
  
• New month inflows.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price has dropped out of the bull zone. Below HTF 618 Fib.
  
• ES closed below the 9/21/55 emas
  
• Potential negative reaction to Not-Farm Payrolls and Fed Head speeches.
  
• H&S neckline was broken so a move to the 50% Fib RT at 4150 is possible.
  
• Potential break of 200 SMA support could lead to heavy selling.
  
• 10 year yield is now above 4.30%
  

Comment:

$ES_F weaker than the $NQ_F. Now trading below the 200 SMA. If the 382 fib RT cannot hold a move to 4150 level is possible. Remember the measurement for the head and shoulders top takes price down to the 50% fib.

Comment:

$ES_F still holding 382 Fib support, but is below the 200 SMA and the upward trendline. Green arrows show next support. Red arrows show first resistance. Price must reclaim the 200 SMA for a bullish turn around.