ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Sep5-8)

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 2.40 % after trading in a range of 131 pts.
  
• ES back above the Aug 16th High
  
• ES reclaimed the 9/21/55 emas
  
• First support is now the Aug 16th high
  
• Aggressive XLK & XLY sectors had as strong week while the defensive XLP & XLU sectors finished red. XLE is also showing relative strength.
  
• Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the lower trendline is still posible.
  
• Head and shoulders still in play unless July 28th high is taken out
  
• If the neckline of the head & shoulders fails a move down to the HTF 50% Fib RT(4150) is possible
  
• Earning seasons closes out with reports from DOCU, KR, AI & GME
  
• Lighter week for econ data but many Fed Heads scheduled to speak
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US Markets Closed
  
• TUES US Factory Order
  
• WED US S&P Services PMI, BoC Rate decision & Fed's Logan & Collins speak
  
• THUR US Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Inventories & 7 Fed Heads speak + BoC's Macklem speaks
  
• FRI CAD Unemployment Rate, US Wholesale Inventories, & Fed's Barr speaks
  

EARNINGS

• MON US Markets Closed
  
• TUES ASAN, GTLB, ZS
  
• WED AEO, AI, GME, PATH
  
• THUR DOCU
  
• FRI KR
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES back above the Aug 16th high
  
• ES reclaimed the 9/21/55 emas
  
• The HTF 886 Fib RT is within striking distance.
  
• ES remains in the long term bull zone. Above higher time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Longer term uptrend remains in place if price does not pull back below the 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential postive reaction to Fed Head speeches
  
• Potential further drop in bond yields
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance (4600)
  
• Seasonally weak period for stocks.
  
• Potential negative reaction to Fed Head speeches
  
• Deeper pull back to lower trendline (4300) is possible
  
• Bearish H&S pattern still in play
  
• Break of H&S neckline would likely lead to a compound corrective move to the Feb 2nd high and potentially the 50% Fib RT at 4150.
  
• Potential yield move back above 4.27%.
  

Comment:

$ES_F has pulled backto start the week. I'm using the June 16th high as my bull/bear line. Above it look for price to retest recent high. Below look for a move down to the Aug 16th high. Canadain rate decision due out at 7am pst/10am est this morning which may provide a catalyst for a move.

Comment:

$ES_F Negative reaction to Can rate decision sending price below the June 16th high. Lower target is the Aug 16th high (top of green box). Look for support to come in there. Area also has confluence with the 55 ema.

Comment:

$ES_F hit the downside target at the top of the green box. Price flushed below the Aug 16th high and is attempting to reclaim the level. A move above would be positive. Conversely if price is rejected look for a retest of the lows.