Summary
• Bias remains Bearish
• Enter the week after broad market sell off after CPI print. Higher than expect inflation #s
• S&P finished last week down 5.03% dropping 115 points on Friday
• Weekly narrative will be dominated by Fed rate decision Wed
• China locking down again.
• Oil holding in the 120 range
• All asset classed now showing weakness. Stock, bonds & Crypto all weak.
• 10 year yield pushing above 3% and the 10y/5y as well as the 30y/5y now inverting.
Weekly Events
Monday OPEC Monthly Report, Feb Brainard speaks
Tuesday US PPI
Wednesday US Retail Sales, EIA Crude Inventories & Interest Rate Decision
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims
Friday Euro CPI, US Industrial Production
BULLISH NOTES
Over sold conditions with elevated Put/Call
Potential reversal off May 20th low
Positive reaction to Fed Rate decision
Dovish commentary during FOMC press conference
Possible Short covering momentum
BEARISH NOTES
Negative sentiment across all asset classes
Break down below May 20th low
Negative Reaction to Rate decision
Hawkish commentary during FOMC press conference
Downward pressure from high volume Put buying
Self Fulfilling prophecy syndrome... everyone expects the market to go down.
• Bias remains Bearish
• Enter the week after broad market sell off after CPI print. Higher than expect inflation #s
• S&P finished last week down 5.03% dropping 115 points on Friday
• Weekly narrative will be dominated by Fed rate decision Wed
• China locking down again.
• Oil holding in the 120 range
• All asset classed now showing weakness. Stock, bonds & Crypto all weak.
• 10 year yield pushing above 3% and the 10y/5y as well as the 30y/5y now inverting.
Weekly Events
Monday OPEC Monthly Report, Feb Brainard speaks
Tuesday US PPI
Wednesday US Retail Sales, EIA Crude Inventories & Interest Rate Decision
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims
Friday Euro CPI, US Industrial Production
BULLISH NOTES
Over sold conditions with elevated Put/Call
Potential reversal off May 20th low
Positive reaction to Fed Rate decision
Dovish commentary during FOMC press conference
Possible Short covering momentum
BEARISH NOTES
Negative sentiment across all asset classes
Break down below May 20th low
Negative Reaction to Rate decision
Hawkish commentary during FOMC press conference
Downward pressure from high volume Put buying
Self Fulfilling prophecy syndrome... everyone expects the market to go down.
Comment:
S&P also setting up for potential 3 drives lower. Here is a weekly look with the key level to the downside. Note the 3 drives completion lines up with the LTF 382 Fib retacement and the 2.24 fib extension lines up with 2020 peak. Don't be surprised to see a decent bounce for any break down. Can still go either way.
Comment:
Consolidating in the box above the 1.13 fib extension before the FOMC. Here are the targets above and below on a break of the consolidation. 9/21 ema above and whited dotted line and green box below. Reference the HTF charts above for extended levels.
Comment:
Broke through the top of the box after the FOMC. If price can stay above the box good chance for a gap fill going into the 9ema.
Comment:
After yesterdays overnight sell off the price dropped through the 1.13 Fib X and the 1.272 Fib X finding support at the pivot low. Retesting the 1.272 Fib X now. Key areas to watch are highlighted. Note price actions around the levels. If a level breaks expect move to next level.
