Here is the weekend look at the ES/SPY going into the shortened trading week of Feb 22-25. My analysis of the ES is almost a carbon copy of my NAS post. We saw whipsaw price action last week and closed down 1.5% on war tensions and worries about a tightening Fed.
This week the ES has gapped down on Sunday night and threatening to continue its move lower. 4212 pivot is a key level to the downside. The S&P has formed a head and shoulders pattern that would confirm if the 4212 level is broken. The H&S pattern implies a move down to about 3600. The compound corrective move I pointed out last week has a completion zone in the 4000 area.
The bearish scenario is not a guarantee. If the h pattern above 4212 holds price could easily reverse and head higher on a positive swing in the news cycle. So many people are leaning short right now that any positive surprise could launch the market higher as shorts would cover and money on the sidelines would be enticed to re-enter the market.
Just as I was typing this positive news has come out about a possible Biden/Putin meeting next week. My take on this .. pay attention to what actually happens not what the media and other say will happen.
Weekly events...
Tuesday... Consumer confidence... Earnings from HD, M, CZR, KTOS, TDOC, SPCE, PANW
Wednesday... Earnings from: SSYS,VIPS, WB, AEM, CLOV, EBAY, FIVN, FUBO, FLGT, HTZ, SKLZ,
Thursday... Jobless Claims, US GDP, New home sales, Crude inventories... Earnings from: BABA, DOCN, PLNT, PZZA, MRNA, PLUG, ZS, MNST,NVTA
Friday... Consumer spending, Durable Goods... Earnings from: FL, IMGN, TREE
Bullish Notes...
Oversold bounce possible
Russia/Ukraine tensions subside
Possitive earnings surprises
Dropping yields
Bearish Notes..
Increased Russia/Ukraine tensions
Earnings disappointments
Rising yields
Breakdown of key support at 13706
Buyers still expect lower prices
Comment:
Look at the H&S pattern
Comment:
Here is a look at the h pattern. Looks very bearish but can go the other way quickly on a change in sentiment.
Comment:
Same as NAS. Neckline has broken on Russian invasion new. Compound correction happening. Completion at the green box and trend line support. Look for relief bounce here.
Comment:
Got the bounce but it front ran the zone so harder to take. I'll continue to watch the zone above the trend line if price rolls over.
