ES Closed another 1% gain last week after running up 5.5% the previous week. Price successfully retested the downward trendline and the 200 SMA. ES has also reclaimed the upward channel. Starts the week at Oct 12 pivot resistance. If price can break the pivot the 4500 level is in play. Conversely a rejection at the Oct 12th high could take price back to the 200 SMA quickly. Expecting sideways chop until CPI comes out. on Tuesday.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
- ES finished the week with a gain of 1.05 % after trading in a range of 83 pts.
- ES broke back above the Aug 17th low after successfully retesting the 200 SMA
- Price is now back inside the longer term channel
- ES back above all key emas and 200 SMA
- Unlike the NQ the ES has yet to break the Aug 12 pivot & confirm a higher high.
- The 4500 level is back in play.
- 1st upside resistance is now the MTF 618 (4468)
- 1st downside support is now the Aug 17th low (4399)
- Strong sector rotation back into XLK & XLC from XLU & XLE
- Market pricing in a pause in rates due to a slowing economy.
- 10 Year yield down to 4.65 & VIX at 14.18
- Econ data this week includes CPI and PPI + many Fed Heads speeches.
Comment:
$ES_F having a massive move post CPI. The 4500 level has been achieved. Price pushed the 618 Fib like butter suggesting massive short covering and panic buying. Next upside target is the 786 Fib. Would expect at least some consolidation here and perhaps a retest of the Oct 12th high. Best to wait for lower timeframe patterns to emerge before entries. Battle between being heavily overbought vs panic buyers.
