ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Nov28-Dec2)

The S&P closed the week up a 1.47% after trading in range of 110 points. Price spent another week in a condensed range on low volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P continued to hold the upper third of the explosive move on Nov 10th. Expect higher volatility next week due to a slew of economic data and a speech by Powell. Key data to watch will be GPD on Wed, PCE prices on Thurs and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The S&P is now about 24 points below the 200 SMA after coming within 10 points of the key resistance level intra-week. Price is at an important decision point. A move above the 200 SMA & downward trendline at 4100 could lead to massive short covering. A rejection in this zone could send the entire market tumbling.

• Coming off low volume tight range week
• S&P 24 points below the 200 SMA
• S&P within 70 point of the downward trendline and much watched 4100 level
• Potential double top pattern at resistance
• Heavy week of economic data (GDP, PCE & Non Farm Payrolls)
• JPOW speaks on Wednesday
• Santa Rally will be top of mind
• Last day of the month is Wednesday
• Massive short covering rally possible above 200 SMA/trendline(4100)
• Massive down move potential if S&P rejects the 200 SMA/trendline(4100)
• Notably low VIX. A VIX at or below 20 has been a good profit taking signal.
• Fed Heads have softened their Hawkish tone
• DXY and Yield have dropped significantly

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed’s Bullard & Williams speak
Tuesday Canadian GDP & US CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday US GDP, US ADP Payroll, US PCE Prelim, US EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell speaks
Thursday US PCE, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Consumer Spending, US ISM Manufacturing & Fed Heads speak
Friday US Unemployment Rate & Non Farm Payrolls

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ARWR, PDD
Tuesday BHP, BILI, CRWD, HPE, INTU, WDAY
Wednesday CRM, HRL, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, SNOW, XPEV
Thursday DG, KR, MRVL, ZS
Friday Nothing notable


BULLISH NOTES

S&P above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA within striking distance
Less hawkish tone from Fed heads
Massive short covering possible above 200 sma
Santa Rally top of mind
DXY & yields may continue to drop
Potential positive reaction to Powell & econ data
Any sign of dropping inflation could send S&P higher

BEARISH NOTES

S&P may reject at the 200 SMA/downward trend line
DXY & yields may reverse higher
Potential negative reaction to JPOW
Potential negative reaction to econ data
Many market participants expect reversal soon
Any sign of increased inflation could send S&P lower
VIX at or below 20 has been good profit taking signal
Potential double top pattern at resistance

Comment:

ES consolidating just below the 200 sma at the 618 Fib RT. May stay in this pattern until data comes out over the latter half of the week. Bulls want to see price break through the 200 sma. The bears want to see price break down through the upward trendline.

Comment:

ES showing relative strength to the NQ but trickling down as well to the 21 ema and upward trendline. Waiting on econ data. GDP and prelim PCE due out tomorrow b/f mrk open.

Comment:

Positive reaction to data and Powell. Currently trading above the 200 sma. Next level higher would be the downward trendline. Possible massive short squeeze if it pushes through. Many traders likely trying to short here.

Comment:

That was fast. Now at the downward trendline. This is key resistance just as PCE data is about to be release. Pull back very possible but depth of pull back is what is important. Any move that erases more that 50% of yesterday's move would be very bearish.

Comment:

Price has fall below the 200 sma again on the Non Farm numbers and has retraced more that 50% of the vertical up move. Line in the sand the 200 now. above bullish and bearish below. Upward trend line and 21 ema key level below.