Here is a look at the S&P going into the first trading week of August. I am posting this late as I have just returned from vacation. Very positive reaction to the data and earnings that came out last week. Price rallied 4.25% into the 100 SMA after breaking thought the 382 FIB. The 100 SMA is resistance along with the May 31 st pivot high. I am expecting a pull back as price digests the massive move of the last few weeks. 4200 is a key level to watch. Above 4200 = Bullish. Below 4200 = bearish. Market continues to have a very bearish sentiment so new shorts may emerge this week. There is limited data due out, but a ton of earnings to watch. Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of the week may be market moving. Below are some things I am considering going into this week.
• Last week had a 200 point range and close up 4.25%
• S&P up 13.5% off June lows.
• Strong finish last week, but closed at 100 SMA & May 31st Pivot Resistance
• Beginning of new month
• Price above 9/21/55 EMAs
• Earnings continue with large number of companies reporting this week
• Yields have dropped with 10y now at 2.67% down .80% of a percent off recent high.
• Recession talk will continue after 2nd negative GDP print last week.
• Market will continue to be torn between Recession fears and inflation.
• Chinese aggressiveness toward Taiwan still a major concern.
• Continued pull back in the USD will provide support to commodities
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Manufacturing
Tuesday Fed’s Evans & Mester Speaks, US Jolts
Wednesday OPEC Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing & US Factory Orders, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US international Trade & US Jobless Claims
Friday US NonFarm Payrolls , US Average earnings.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, ANET, CAR, DVN, FANG, PINS
Tuesday BP, CAT, DD, ETN, RACE, JBLU, MAR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, EA, MTCH, OXY,SEDG, SBUX
Wednesday CVS, DISH, MRNA, SSYS, UAA, YUM
Thursday BABA, BCE, COP, LLY, K, QSR, TNK, ZTS, AMC, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, CVNA, NET, DOCS, EXPE, GRWG, KTOS, LYFT, MP, SWKS, SU, SPCE, YELP, ZG
Friday BEP, CGC, DKNG, WDC, TU
BULLISH NOTES
Potential new month inflows
Earnings momentum may continue
Break of May 31st pivot (4200) could yield move to 4300
Continued short squeeze
Fed meeting and Mega earnings out of the way
Price now above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA may act as a magnet
BEARISH NOTES
Price starts week at 100SMA resistance at 4200
Market short term overbought
Current rally may need a breather
Possible hawkish comment from Fed heads
Buyers fizzle as shorts finish covering
Potential negative earnings reaction
Limited catalysts this week outside earnings.
Unforeseen shock event possible
• Last week had a 200 point range and close up 4.25%
• S&P up 13.5% off June lows.
• Strong finish last week, but closed at 100 SMA & May 31st Pivot Resistance
• Beginning of new month
• Price above 9/21/55 EMAs
• Earnings continue with large number of companies reporting this week
• Yields have dropped with 10y now at 2.67% down .80% of a percent off recent high.
• Recession talk will continue after 2nd negative GDP print last week.
• Market will continue to be torn between Recession fears and inflation.
• Chinese aggressiveness toward Taiwan still a major concern.
• Continued pull back in the USD will provide support to commodities
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US ISM Manufacturing
Tuesday Fed’s Evans & Mester Speaks, US Jolts
Wednesday OPEC Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing & US Factory Orders, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BOE Rate Decision, US international Trade & US Jobless Claims
Friday US NonFarm Payrolls , US Average earnings.
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ATVI, ANET, CAR, DVN, FANG, PINS
Tuesday BP, CAT, DD, ETN, RACE, JBLU, MAR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, EA, MTCH, OXY,SEDG, SBUX
Wednesday CVS, DISH, MRNA, SSYS, UAA, YUM
Thursday BABA, BCE, COP, LLY, K, QSR, TNK, ZTS, AMC, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, CVNA, NET, DOCS, EXPE, GRWG, KTOS, LYFT, MP, SWKS, SU, SPCE, YELP, ZG
Friday BEP, CGC, DKNG, WDC, TU
BULLISH NOTES
Potential new month inflows
Earnings momentum may continue
Break of May 31st pivot (4200) could yield move to 4300
Continued short squeeze
Fed meeting and Mega earnings out of the way
Price now above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA may act as a magnet
BEARISH NOTES
Price starts week at 100SMA resistance at 4200
Market short term overbought
Current rally may need a breather
Possible hawkish comment from Fed heads
Buyers fizzle as shorts finish covering
Potential negative earnings reaction
Limited catalysts this week outside earnings.
Unforeseen shock event possible
Comment:
Chopping around at the resistance zone. Good chance price pulls back to the bottom of the grey box. Below that 3900 would be in play again.
