#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.24 - 03.29
Last Week :
Last week we opened below 5227 - 07.50 HTF Edge but weren't able to hold under it, we got some selling from Edge area back down towards VAH but not strong enough to get inside or break it, for any continuation under we needed to get through it which didn't happen. Once we got back over the Edge on Tuesday and this time held above, we were able to put together a cost basis there and once we took out VAL of New Range above VAH became our Target. We didn't hit it same day but got to it after hours which we know has less volume so its easier to move the market. We ended up tagging top of VAH but no strong buyers came in to take us over and that's when we started building the supply to back fill back towards the Mean to end the week with a break back under 5295.50 - 90.50.
This Week :
So far going into this week we know we have sellers over VAH and unless strong buyers come in, our current ones don't need to pay over Value. It's also Month end and this is a perfect spot for size longs to be taking profits and closing things up, BUT look at the small distribution ranges we had rest of the week which tells us we don't have size sellers to give us big moves from here so we will most likely need to wait for Supply to build up if we want to see continuation under 95.50 - 90.50.
For now the Mean can act as support as shorts will be trying to cover at cheaper prices for the supply that falls under 5300. This might be a tricky week again and ranges could be small while we are building Supply, we can see some tighter range balances around this top of Mean/VAH area and need to be careful with longs because we do have sellers now and long trades might fizzle out quicker than everyone wants as shorts don't have to pay higher prices while we have longs unloading into the buying to close out the month. If we can't make a push or accept over VAH and build up enough supply we could see a move through the Mean towards VAL at some point, just have to be careful forcing it early as we may need more time to test around VAH before we have the supply to do that. IF we do run out of selling at VAH and accept over 5322.50 we could see a run at next Key Resistance area towards the Edge but for that we would need to build up under VAH and inside it as well. 5310 - 06 area can still be tested and maybe even over it at some point before we get a better failure to see a move to push us further trough the mean. Quicker trades without expecting too much follow through would be best bet until we see that we will be ready to move.
Levels to watch :
Supply is over 5310.50 - 06.50 Which makes it possible resistance or to look for look above and fail area. If we get through and don't fail we have 5324.75 - 20.75 as VAH top
and 5341 - 36 as next Key Resistance.
5295.50 - 90.25 is current Key Area but we can't really say its our Support or Resistance just yet even though we closed at/under it on Friday, this area can act as smaller Mean, but once we have enough Supply over it and can get through we can watch lower targets for Continuation
5279.25 - 75.25 is first spot to hit and if enough supply VAL area at 5264.75 - 60.75 would be a good spot to visit as well.
5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for anything under VAL.
It is a shorter Holiday week so we have to be careful and see if we get any moves out of this area at all or will we spend the whole week trading around Mean/VAH area if that will be the case 5310.50 - 06.50 // 5295.50 - 90.25 +/- is our current shelf and can see trading within/around until we will be ready to move.
Last week we opened below 5227 - 07.50 HTF Edge but weren't able to hold under it, we got some selling from Edge area back down towards VAH but not strong enough to get inside or break it, for any continuation under we needed to get through it which didn't happen. Once we got back over the Edge on Tuesday and this time held above, we were able to put together a cost basis there and once we took out VAL of New Range above VAH became our Target. We didn't hit it same day but got to it after hours which we know has less volume so its easier to move the market. We ended up tagging top of VAH but no strong buyers came in to take us over and that's when we started building the supply to back fill back towards the Mean to end the week with a break back under 5295.50 - 90.50.
This Week :
So far going into this week we know we have sellers over VAH and unless strong buyers come in, our current ones don't need to pay over Value. It's also Month end and this is a perfect spot for size longs to be taking profits and closing things up, BUT look at the small distribution ranges we had rest of the week which tells us we don't have size sellers to give us big moves from here so we will most likely need to wait for Supply to build up if we want to see continuation under 95.50 - 90.50.
For now the Mean can act as support as shorts will be trying to cover at cheaper prices for the supply that falls under 5300. This might be a tricky week again and ranges could be small while we are building Supply, we can see some tighter range balances around this top of Mean/VAH area and need to be careful with longs because we do have sellers now and long trades might fizzle out quicker than everyone wants as shorts don't have to pay higher prices while we have longs unloading into the buying to close out the month. If we can't make a push or accept over VAH and build up enough supply we could see a move through the Mean towards VAL at some point, just have to be careful forcing it early as we may need more time to test around VAH before we have the supply to do that. IF we do run out of selling at VAH and accept over 5322.50 we could see a run at next Key Resistance area towards the Edge but for that we would need to build up under VAH and inside it as well. 5310 - 06 area can still be tested and maybe even over it at some point before we get a better failure to see a move to push us further trough the mean. Quicker trades without expecting too much follow through would be best bet until we see that we will be ready to move.
Levels to watch :
Supply is over 5310.50 - 06.50 Which makes it possible resistance or to look for look above and fail area. If we get through and don't fail we have 5324.75 - 20.75 as VAH top
and 5341 - 36 as next Key Resistance.
5295.50 - 90.25 is current Key Area but we can't really say its our Support or Resistance just yet even though we closed at/under it on Friday, this area can act as smaller Mean, but once we have enough Supply over it and can get through we can watch lower targets for Continuation
5279.25 - 75.25 is first spot to hit and if enough supply VAL area at 5264.75 - 60.75 would be a good spot to visit as well.
5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for anything under VAL.
It is a shorter Holiday week so we have to be careful and see if we get any moves out of this area at all or will we spend the whole week trading around Mean/VAH area if that will be the case 5310.50 - 06.50 // 5295.50 - 90.25 +/- is our current shelf and can see trading within/around until we will be ready to move.
Comment:
So far Mean provided a bit of Support ON but we failed to get back over 95-90 and once we put in volume under it to show acceptance it acted as good Resistance and gave continuation to first target at 79.25 - 75.25. This move showed us that there is more weakness than we thought and if that is the case, holding under 79-75 can give continuation towards VAL sooner than we though with next target being 64.75 - 60.75, IF enough volume comes in we have Key Support at 49.75 - 44.75 with Cost Basis under it but that is mostly Globex cost basis and trapped shorts from the Fed run so I wouldn't build too much confidence in it unless it shows strong holds in tha area, if enough size hits it we could break it and go for the lower stops towards the lower Edge. IF that does happen areas to watch under would be 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75. If enough there is enough buying here then we could hold and balance around this VAL area
Comment:
75-79 Held for now and we have supply above with sellers in the market which tells us we need to be careful as we may get another slow day while this thing builds up. But if we continue holding under 90s and build up enough supply we may see continuation towards 64-60 later in the day unless we can stay and balance within this 90s - 70s area all day
Comment:
So far HTF Mean acted as Support as noted in Sundays post, market showed weakness in Mondays Globex and made us believe we had more in us to continue under 5279.25 - 75.25 the same day but instead we balanced within and now ON made push back over 5295.50 - 90.25 this is why we we didn't know if this area would be Resistance or Support yet going into this week. Going into today we have MM Month End and we are in a tricky spot. Holding over 5295.50 - 90.25 could bring in more buyers to keep us up and try to make a push into VAH again with target of 5310.50 - 06.50 but we have to remember this is also a time when size could be taking Profit going into Month end and if we can't make a push through 10.50 - 06.50 and accept over or we don't get there and come back under 95.50 - 90.25 at some point later today after building up more Supply then we could see a run at 5279.25 - 75.25 and see if we can take Previous Day low which would force more selling and maybe give us that push towards VAL for next target at 5264.75 - 60.75 and possible push under ? It is Month end so could be tricky and take some time to set up for it if it happens at all. For now 5306.50 - 5295.50 is our shelf and we can trade within it until we either push above or come back in for lower targets.
Comment:
One thing to note is we HAVE to be careful if market doesn't show continuation under/over areas, we are in the middle of new Daily Balance and inside HTF Mean, we can stay around here in smaller balance ranges longer than everyone expects, so quicker trades might be all we get for now with no continuation since we have sellers above and every time we come down we got more covering that comes in.
Comment:
Interesting to note how yesterday we build up all day under 5295 - 90 instead of over it to build supply which is a change in the markets as usually we build supply above areas then break and continue lower, this time we built it under and then continued lower to next targets and we ended up taking 79.25 - 75.25 // Previous Days low and tagging VAL at 64.75 - 60.75 which were potential targets for the day if selling volume came in. We are now through MM Month end which was yesterday and now last few days of retail Month end before the 3 day weekend. Question today is will the market be able to hold above VAL and balance in this current 5250 - 5290 Range around VAL / Mean OR do we have more volume to come out since we have more Supply above us ? If we have more selling and get under 79.25 - 75.25 we can see another run at VAL and if we take Previous day low in that area which to me is pretty weak right now as size would take it then we can see continuation towards Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and IF that gets taken we can see a move down towards the lower Edge as we have stops built up under it which can make more candy fall out if we take them. In that case next targets for lower continuation would be 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 and depending how much candy falls out and if we can get inside the Edge we have next Key Support and Edge low at 5204.25 - 5199.75 which are also not as strong so careful trying to long if we do get going and have the volume. If no strong sell volume we can balance under the Supply above Previous Day low.
Comment:
And of course for a move back over the Mean to VAH we would need hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through 95.50 - 90.25 as that is now our Key Resistance.
Comment:
If all the size selling is done for the week and big boys are starting vacation early then we may hold and balance around the Mean again similar to Monday RTH action since 5295-90 is still our Intraday Mean, if thats the case we can trade under it until we can push through and possibly visit VAH at 5310 - 06.50 that is where we have more Supply if we run out under 90.
Comment:
Key Resistance at 95.50 - 90.25 held and gave a nice sell back to 79.75 - 75.25 target. Market got under and held but failed to continue towards VAL, good moves are likely done for the day and we can balance within this 70s - 80s area unless more volume comes in to get us back under to try and fix that poor low but we will need either more supply built up above or stronger sell volume. If we don't go for it today then maybe something to watch for tonight/tomorrow even though it's a day before a Holiday if we build up enough supply and run out of buyers then our better buyers will be under 64-60. For us to attempt higher moves towards VAH we would need to push through Key Resistance until then we can continue trading in this 90s- 60s area.
Comment:
Idea and area from last week are still valid this week. Since market was closed Friday and we had Data and Powell that caused marked to open on a Gap but it was only a Gap from Previous Close not over Previous high. We pushed over VAH spent time above without tagging next Key area and now are coming back in, as mentioned last week we still have sellers over VAH which means buyers wont want to pay higher prices for now. If we start holding around VAH and push off again and accept over VAH then we can start thinking about visiting the higher Edge, otherwise we will go back inside Value and trade within for now. 5310.50 - 06.50 is current intrarange Support and now we have more Supply above which tells us if breaks we can again see 5295.50 - 90.25 this would be area to watch for Continuation for lower targets if we get through eventually.
Comment:
One thing we have to be careful for is for this thing to have a slow leak lower and takes its sweet time to build up then move to targets we are are not trying to scare off new buyers and break what we build last week in Value too quick. It's beginning of a new month and our volume has been light with things taking long time to set up. But as long as we keep holding under Above Edge and keep failing to accept over VAH then that can make the market continue to leak lower towards VAL and Eventually if we take the lows there under 5270s that can give us a move into the lower Edge into 5200 but this could take rest of the month to fully play out. Until then we could continue with balances and level to level moves once they are ready.
Comment:
Market gave a nice flush under 95-90 but no continuation through 79-75 telling us there is still buying here but it is not strong enough to keep us over 95-90 as that was potential Support area but it wasn't a strong one, now we are just distributing under it. As mentioned the moves can be slow and can't be expecting too much unless market shows it. We could continue to balance around this area as 95-90 is acting as a Mean today. If we hold today and tomorrow more selling comes in then we could possible see a move through 79-75 and possible test that poor low we have from 03.27. We have to be taking these moves step at time because we did build up Supports around the Value last week in order to give us holds when drop to distribute at lower prices. If all goes well and we continue lower tomorrow then maybe Wednesday/Thursday we can another visit into VAL at 64-60 area with possible peak below.
Comment:
Beautiful sell day with VAL and lower targets hitting, failure over VAH was our clue that buying ran out and longs were trapped. from VAH we looked for continuation to Mean first then VAL. 49-44 was the gate to lower prices under VAL. Size shorts will be front running the bottom Edge and covering ahead as this is where they have the volume to do so. We may get holds here under 4249.75 - 44.75 while they do so. Question is when they are done covering will there be more supply to come out to see a test lower and try a push into the Edge, or will selling run out and we try to make a move back over 49-44 to try and push back in VAL. If we do get over and try to push into VAL we have to be careful looking for too much beyond high 50s -60 as we can stay under those areas today. If we stay under 5249.75 - 44.75 and there will be more Supply to come out once size is covered for today then we could see attempt at lower targets which would be 5234.25 - 30.25 Edge top at 27 and if we push inside it we have 5219.75 - 15.75. 34.25-30.25 Is current intrarange Support and we may spend the day balancing between that and VAL
Comment:
We pulled back to an area where we broke VAL but failed to get over it, this could be a spot where sellers would step in again, we have T2 and Supply above us. If we can't get over VAL and accept over or if can't hold around VAL and fall out again with Supply above then there will be a chance to visit the lower Edge with targets down into 5230-20s depending how much volume we have to come out, for anything under the Edge we have Edge low and Key Support at 5207.50 // 04.25 - 5199.75 area
Comment:
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support at VAL has been holding all night, no continuation towards the Edge unless we accept under and more selling comes in to push us that way. If selling is not strong we can stay balancing in this VAL area around 40 - 60s with 5264.75 - 60.75 being our Intrarange Resistance if we build up enough we could try to push over towards 5275.25 - 79.25 Level to fill some of that Gap we have created above but need to be careful as we still have T2 and Supply above that Mean area which tells us any pushes over 64.75 could be met with selling once buying runs out and price can keep coming back inside VAL. We are currently inside 5244.75 - 5295.50 Range with Supply above so if we do hold this range for now we can expect to trade around the lower parts of it while supply is coming out. As mentioned Size shorts will be covering down at VAL and under it which can hold us up until they are done and then we will see if there is still Supply to take us towards the lower Edge or selling runs out and we try to head back inside the Mean for Supply but this can take time to play out.