The S&P 500 closed down 2.99% last week for the 7th consecutive time, but price did not make a lower weekly low for the first time in 7 weeks which may be significant. The S&P flushed below the previous week’s low but managed to rally 90 points on Friday. Price opened the week approximately 2.2% off the May 20th low and 18.9% off the ATH which kept the S&P above official bear market status.
To start the week the double bottom pattern remains intact as price has not closed below the May 12th low yet. The key levels to watch now are the May 20th low at 3807 and the double bottom pivot at 4095. If price can break above 4095 a move to the top of the neutral at 4297 is possible. If the double bottom fails at 3807 next support is at the Feb 1st low at 3656. Below that level a move to the 2.24 Fib Extension/ 382 Fib Retracement is possible.
This week the market will continue to be tortured by more Fed heads speaking including Powell on Tuesday. New home sales and Crude Inventories will also be released this week. On the earning front there is a slew of Canadian banks reporting as well as some highly followed retailers such as COST, M & AEO reporting.
Sentiment is very negative, and many are calling for a deeper low. My bias remains bearish, but we are entering very oversold territory and a fierce corrective rally could take place at any time.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Botic speaks
Tuesday New Home sales & Powell speaks
Wednesday US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & FOMC minutes
Thursday US Jobless claims & US GDP
Friday US Consumer Spending
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ZM
Tuesday ANF, BBY, CSIQ, NTES, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday BMO, BNS, DKS, GES, NIO,NVDA, SNOW
Thursday BABA, BIDU, BZUN, DG, DLTR, M, RY, TD, AEO, ADSK, COST, GPS, MRVL, ZS
Friday BIG, CGC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive Earnings momentum
Oversold conditions
Potential de-escalation in Ukraine
Further pull back in bond yields
USD Weakens
Mega Caps rebound
BEARISH NOTES
Continued Hawkish talk from Fed Heads
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Continuation of inflationary pressures
Bond yields continue higher
USD continues to strengthen
Continued Weakness in Mega Caps
To start the week the double bottom pattern remains intact as price has not closed below the May 12th low yet. The key levels to watch now are the May 20th low at 3807 and the double bottom pivot at 4095. If price can break above 4095 a move to the top of the neutral at 4297 is possible. If the double bottom fails at 3807 next support is at the Feb 1st low at 3656. Below that level a move to the 2.24 Fib Extension/ 382 Fib Retracement is possible.
This week the market will continue to be tortured by more Fed heads speaking including Powell on Tuesday. New home sales and Crude Inventories will also be released this week. On the earning front there is a slew of Canadian banks reporting as well as some highly followed retailers such as COST, M & AEO reporting.
Sentiment is very negative, and many are calling for a deeper low. My bias remains bearish, but we are entering very oversold territory and a fierce corrective rally could take place at any time.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Botic speaks
Tuesday New Home sales & Powell speaks
Wednesday US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & FOMC minutes
Thursday US Jobless claims & US GDP
Friday US Consumer Spending
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ZM
Tuesday ANF, BBY, CSIQ, NTES, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday BMO, BNS, DKS, GES, NIO,NVDA, SNOW
Thursday BABA, BIDU, BZUN, DG, DLTR, M, RY, TD, AEO, ADSK, COST, GPS, MRVL, ZS
Friday BIG, CGC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive Earnings momentum
Oversold conditions
Potential de-escalation in Ukraine
Further pull back in bond yields
USD Weakens
Mega Caps rebound
BEARISH NOTES
Continued Hawkish talk from Fed Heads
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Continuation of inflationary pressures
Bond yields continue higher
USD continues to strengthen
Continued Weakness in Mega Caps
Comment:
ES gave up the overnight gains on the open so the trend of buying the close and selling the open continues. Price has rebounded now, however, and broken near term resistance. The red arrows mark the key pivots to watch.
Comment:
The promising break of near term resistance was reversed harshly on SNAP news. May 20th low obviously in play. Powell will either be the saviour today or stick another pin in it.
Comment:
Consolidating above the May 20th low which lined up nicely with the expanding downward trend line. Starting to look like a rounding base. Reasonable the price either moves up to the 4100 level or drop to retest the May 20th low. The key pivots remain the red arrows.
Comment:
Made a nice move up yesterday. Now coming into the key pivot and the bottom of the Neutral box. Price is also above the 21 ema. Expect continued bullish price action if price can hold the 21 ema.
Comment:
Strong close to the week. Broke the downward trendline and closed above the 21ema and the bottom of Neutral box. This was also the first weekly close above the previous week's close in 8 weeks.
