The S&P closed the week up 5.84% after trading a in a massive range of 268 points. Price close at 4000 and at the high of the week range. The S&P is above 9/21/55 emas and the Nov 1st pivot high. Price starts the week at the 618 Fib RT within striking distance of the long term downward trend line and the 200 SMA. Below are few points I am considering.
• Coming off massive +5.84% weekly gain
• Above 9/21/55 ema
• Key driver is declining CPI data
• Historically bullish period of the year
• DXY & 10 year bond yields have pulled back significantly
• 200 sma now price magnet
• Bullish price action remains in the context of a longer term down trend
• Watch for Fed Head walk back (Hawkish commentary to dampen market euphoria)
• High number of Fed Heads making speeches this week
• Major retailers WMT, TGT, HD & LOW report this week + big China names BABA & JD
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s William’s & Brainard Speak
Tuesday US PPI & NY Fed Manufacturing + Fed’s Cook, Harker & Elderson Speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, BoC CPI & US Industrial Production
Thursday Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Jefferson & Kashkari speak + US Initial Jobless Claims & Housing Starts
Friday US Existing Home Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday SNDL, TSN,
Tuesday AAP, BHP, HD, SE, WMT, DNUT
Wednesday CSCO, LOW, NVDA, SONO, TGT, YY, TJX, GLBE
Thursday AMAT, BJ, GPS, M, PANW, BABA, WB, FTCH,
Friday FL, JD
BULLISH NOTES
Coming off massive 7% bullish reversal
Above 9/21/55 EMAs
9 ema is above the 55 ema
CPI data shows reduced inflation
DXY & 10y have pulled back
200 SMA magnet
Bullish period for stocks
Momentum Funds will be flipping bullish on technicals
BEARISH NOTES
Market short term overbought
Pull back to breakout point & EMAs possible
Potential hawkish commentary from Fed Heads
Potential fall out/contagion from Crypto plunge (FTX)
Potential Russian/Ukraine shock event (TNW)
Potential spike in Oil due to Russia & SPR drain
• Coming off massive +5.84% weekly gain
• Above 9/21/55 ema
• Key driver is declining CPI data
• Historically bullish period of the year
• DXY & 10 year bond yields have pulled back significantly
• 200 sma now price magnet
• Bullish price action remains in the context of a longer term down trend
• Watch for Fed Head walk back (Hawkish commentary to dampen market euphoria)
• High number of Fed Heads making speeches this week
• Major retailers WMT, TGT, HD & LOW report this week + big China names BABA & JD
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s William’s & Brainard Speak
Tuesday US PPI & NY Fed Manufacturing + Fed’s Cook, Harker & Elderson Speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, BoC CPI & US Industrial Production
Thursday Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Jefferson & Kashkari speak + US Initial Jobless Claims & Housing Starts
Friday US Existing Home Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday SNDL, TSN,
Tuesday AAP, BHP, HD, SE, WMT, DNUT
Wednesday CSCO, LOW, NVDA, SONO, TGT, YY, TJX, GLBE
Thursday AMAT, BJ, GPS, M, PANW, BABA, WB, FTCH,
Friday FL, JD
BULLISH NOTES
Coming off massive 7% bullish reversal
Above 9/21/55 EMAs
9 ema is above the 55 ema
CPI data shows reduced inflation
DXY & 10y have pulled back
200 SMA magnet
Bullish period for stocks
Momentum Funds will be flipping bullish on technicals
BEARISH NOTES
Market short term overbought
Pull back to breakout point & EMAs possible
Potential hawkish commentary from Fed Heads
Potential fall out/contagion from Crypto plunge (FTX)
Potential Russian/Ukraine shock event (TNW)
Potential spike in Oil due to Russia & SPR drain
Comment:
Choppy price to start the week. More ore less stuck at the 618 Fib. There was break higher today but was rejected at the 1.272 Fib X on the Poland bombing news. If price cannot hold the 618 expect a move back to the 55 ema. Above the 1.272 expect a move to the 200 sma.
Comment:
Still expecting a deeper pull back. The green box is my support zone with confluence of the ascending trendline and emas.
