duckwade

ES daily 03/10: market still undecided yet

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Today's idea would be a short one, as market indeed pullback to 4200~4250 range today, held that range and went higher into close, but I still have my doubt that market has made the decision for the bullish path yet. One concern is the scale of the pullback, we had a pullback on Tuesday, that retraced over 88.7%, an abc bounce to a bit over 100% extension, then today pullback to almost 38.2% extension. Both pullback are too big for any bullish path. On the other hand, the volatility crush today while the ES is red is indeed favoring the bullish resolution. Although I am still leaning toward bearish resolution, I will remain open minded and have to rely on tomorrow's move to determine where we go next. Clear 4325 is bullish, break 4200 is bearish. Other than that, there is really not much to say. Please remember next Wed is Fed meeting date, and market like to consolidate a bit before that, so timing wise, tomorrow is also the best date to make a decision, if market is still stuck here at tomorrow's close, then it probably have to wait until after Fed meeting. And if this happens, remember I mentioned during strong bearish trend, market has to reverse all the rally of yesterday's big green bar within two trading days, so if this happens, unless we continue grind up in the coming days leading to Fed, I would assume the final resolution would be upside.
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