Reveries on value and dirty shirts 2024
Roughly 10:30am on Feb 14 2024 ... 4h on left showing interim bull, s1 4980s, macro bear r1 4030s
Big picture range on left maps initial balance and 10% vola filter for 12M - posting on 4h tf to provide tracking for interim moves on candles for the year.
Indies dont tend to present after chart is published thus current directional read (4h interim bull, macro bear) is current cycle.
On the right, larger tf and larger range projections ... 1d bear on interim and macro cycles unless we sustain north of 5034. By no means my opinion that market has "topped." Push north of 5100 feasible even within the current month. Downside cycle to 4820-4730 if s1 on 1d macro @ 4829 is broken.
Orange and red boxes are based on 6M and 12M ranges. 12M to the downside shows 3700's feasible within the year, however personal bias on true sup more accurately reflected by s1/ s2 and s3 levels.
4200's would be a little under 20% discount based current ath, and though I have no hesitation in labeling this level and anything below as considerable value, I do so with a few caveats:
1.) I quantify value based on the marginal efficiency of an entry price and a projected range for exit.
2.) I do not believe that making qualitative assessment about individual assets is necessary to be bullish on the market in general.
Current inflation issues are neither new, or enigmatic in origin. It's simply the function of 75M people being born between 1946 - 1964, all aggressively competing for limited jobs and assets from the moment they all turned into adults in the mid 1980's.
Huge demand for assets, goods and services drove prices higher and higher.
Huge supply of working adults, put little pressure on employers to raise wages.
In 1986 every boomer was old enough to buy a beer and vote. SPX opened the year @ 212 and minimum wage was $3.35/hr.
Its 2024 and current high on SPX for Feb is 5066, minimum wage is $7.25.
Even if the birthrate stateside goes down, it won't matter -- the rest of the world (free and otherwise) witnessed the +2000% pump. The American Dream has been globalized, and with it new continents of resolute demand.
Am I saying "only up?" No.
Im saying when it comes to buyers, the US market is spoiled for choice.
Even at its worst, the cleanest dirty shirt still wins.
Appreciate the risk.
Big picture range on left maps initial balance and 10% vola filter for 12M - posting on 4h tf to provide tracking for interim moves on candles for the year.
Indies dont tend to present after chart is published thus current directional read (4h interim bull, macro bear) is current cycle.
On the right, larger tf and larger range projections ... 1d bear on interim and macro cycles unless we sustain north of 5034. By no means my opinion that market has "topped." Push north of 5100 feasible even within the current month. Downside cycle to 4820-4730 if s1 on 1d macro @ 4829 is broken.
Orange and red boxes are based on 6M and 12M ranges. 12M to the downside shows 3700's feasible within the year, however personal bias on true sup more accurately reflected by s1/ s2 and s3 levels.
4200's would be a little under 20% discount based current ath, and though I have no hesitation in labeling this level and anything below as considerable value, I do so with a few caveats:
1.) I quantify value based on the marginal efficiency of an entry price and a projected range for exit.
2.) I do not believe that making qualitative assessment about individual assets is necessary to be bullish on the market in general.
Current inflation issues are neither new, or enigmatic in origin. It's simply the function of 75M people being born between 1946 - 1964, all aggressively competing for limited jobs and assets from the moment they all turned into adults in the mid 1980's.
Huge demand for assets, goods and services drove prices higher and higher.
Huge supply of working adults, put little pressure on employers to raise wages.
In 1986 every boomer was old enough to buy a beer and vote. SPX opened the year @ 212 and minimum wage was $3.35/hr.
Its 2024 and current high on SPX for Feb is 5066, minimum wage is $7.25.
Even if the birthrate stateside goes down, it won't matter -- the rest of the world (free and otherwise) witnessed the +2000% pump. The American Dream has been globalized, and with it new continents of resolute demand.
Am I saying "only up?" No.
Im saying when it comes to buyers, the US market is spoiled for choice.
Even at its worst, the cleanest dirty shirt still wins.
Appreciate the risk.
tapped 5100 level yesterday with still a week left for the month of feb.
today price hit 20% level (5123) and retreated. potential rotation to downside as buy/sell pressure contracting (noted on dmi but not visible on published chart)
Macro Pivot @ 5059, sustain that level and 1d could continue higher,
break below 5059 - 5037 is signal for potential downside rotation on larger tf (1D/1W)
appreciate the risk.