ES: Ukraine issue settled, now it all depends on Fed
Market rallied hard overnight on the news that Russian started to withdraw troops from Ukraine border. After reaching 4868, it was basically fluctuating within the 30 pts range the whole day. Comparing with past pre-Fed fractals, this is actually the most bullish scenario. And if we can hold the same range tonight, it bodes well for a bullish continuation tomorrow after Fed minutes release, as I think that would be a buy the news event.
However, everything related to Fed is a wild card now, it seems they are way behind the curve and don't care about market response any more, so further more hawkish tone still could spook the market and bring us the evasive (5) of (c). And if that happens, we could even retest the Jan low and finish the whole drop much earlier than I expected. But for now, my primary route is still that we will consolidate in today's range overnight or even make higher high overnight then pullback to today's range, then strong rally breach 4520 tomorrow afternoon. Right now, guess it's all depends on Fed, so I will keep some hedge puts on.
However, everything related to Fed is a wild card now, it seems they are way behind the curve and don't care about market response any more, so further more hawkish tone still could spook the market and bring us the evasive (5) of (c). And if that happens, we could even retest the Jan low and finish the whole drop much earlier than I expected. But for now, my primary route is still that we will consolidate in today's range overnight or even make higher high overnight then pullback to today's range, then strong rally breach 4520 tomorrow afternoon. Right now, guess it's all depends on Fed, so I will keep some hedge puts on.