ES1!: Week of Jan 29

Hey everyone,

Jumping in to share my analysis on the S&P from the futures perspective.
The look at futures actually gives some better clarity than simply looking at SPY so let's get into it.

The Chart:

I tried to make the chart as telling as I possibly could.

You have those levels you all want shown, with the corresponding probability.
You will see that the bearish targets have extremely low to absent probability.
That said, the extreme high targets also have extremely low to absent probability.

So what does this mean?

It means we should actually make a move towards the higher targets to finally cap out and make a move back down.

Does this spell the top?

Maybe! Its possible. I can't speak to what it will say next week (week of Feb 6), but the probability assessment itself signals a bit of an impending top here. Both the momentum and the technicals are bullish. But not over-arching, range defying bullishness. They simply support a move to the upper portion of the bullish range and then stopping.

Don't forget monthlies.

We will be starting a new month mid week. So we will have to look to see what the month of February spells out for the S&P in terms of a probability assessment.
I will have to run those numbers. I never really ran the probability assessment for the month of January fully, just looked at some vague numbers and assessments and presumed "Bearis". I re-ran them mid month and it was actually bullish. So I am not going to make that mistake again because that did actually translate to some stop outs for me on some swings. Nothing that I wasn't able to fully recover from, but it was completely avoidable had I just not been lazy and presumptuous (running probability assessments itself is quite labour intensive to do it properly, so you understand, if I can avoid doing them, I do haha).

The 99% Target.

I love futures. Not only because they are a great respector of the probabilities, but also because we can calculate a 99% the week in advance. Not only is it a 99% target, but its actually a 100% target. Now, the pre-emptive 100% is very conservative, but sometimes it can lead to pretty great trades:

Last week:

Week of December 26th:

Week of December 11th:

So let's pay attention to this target.
Its 4083.

Monday Expectations:

So what are we expecting Monday?
While SPY retains quite a bit of bullish momentum, at least intra-day. ES1! paints a story of pullback and selling.
I have plotted the highest probability range in teal.
Now this isn't the ENTIRE trading range for Monday, just the highest probability trading range.

Judging by the Monday probabilities overlayed with the weekly, it does seem we should make a move down to 4059 before it may decide to potentially bounce.

Your targets for Monday are:

Bull:

1. 4093 (0 prob)
2. 4112 (0 prob)
3. 4131 (High prob)

Bear:

1. 4079 (High Prob)
2. 4056 (High Prob)
3. 4032 (0 Prob)

As always, trade your own plan and your own analysis. These are just my thoughts and what I am seeing/speculating.


Safe trades everyone!

Comment:

I am so sorry, I transcribed the data incorrect for the daily probabilities on Monday.

I really apologize for the confusion. I posted this idea on my laptop so I had to flip my screen between my datasets and Tradingview and things got lost in translation.

Here are the revised targets with correct probability assigned:

Bull

1. 4093 (High prob)
2. 4112 (0)
3. 4131 (0)

Bear

1. 4079 (high prob)
2. 4056 (modest prob)
3. 4032 (0 prob)

Again, I am sorry for the mistake! :(

Trade active:

Long scalped off open to the 100% target. Flipped short at 4083.
Targeting 4059.

Best luck to all tonight/tomorrow.

Comment:

Forgot to share my scale outs.

These are the areas I will be scaling out.
I am in -3 Contracts.
Final will be 4059.

But there is a ton of buying pressure, so maybe I am being over zealous targetting 4059. However, so far the probs have been serving me well =).

I have moved down my SL to 4080.

Trade closed: target reached:

All targets reached :-).

Was painfully slow, but worth it!