Well market indeed found a short term bottom yesterday and printed a higher low (4148.25) at yesterday future close, from there, it went straight up for exactly 150 points and reach the high of today at 4298.25. So this fits my c wave projection almost perfectly, but also meet my requirement of 150 points needed to confirm the bottom, where would we will go next? To be honest, I don't know. There are both bullish and bearish signs today:
Bullish:
CL which is exponentially rising since the escalation of Ukraine crisis dropped over 10% today. GC, the most famous safe-heaven commodity also dropped almost 4% from intraday high yesterday. Both are signalling some sort of fear relief today. ES/SPX rallied 2.6% and created a huge green daily bar, stopped almost right at 10MA on daily chart. There is no doubt about today's bullish mood, which is needed to form/confirm a bottom. If these trend continues tomorrow, most likely we have a bottom already, and we may see quick retest of 4580 range around next Wed Fed meeting.
Bearish:
Volatility products like VX/VXX/VVIX indeed drops, but the scale of drop is far from confirm the bottom, on the other hand, the intraday movement of VX is basically sideway while the market clearly grinds up. Any drop in ES would create huge spike in VX, this to me is telling that market does not think the volatility is over yet. Also the rally stopped right at 10day MA, which is the common resistance zone in strong downtrend, and the perfect abc bounce since 4138 low a few days ago, combinely they are forming a perfect storm, waiting to be activated.
Add to that, is the release of the most watched economic indicator in the past few months, CPI, tomorrow morning. And this would create an inflection point right here. So I would assume we go sideways tonight, but does huge swing once CPI is released. Please be alerted that the initial response after CPI, no matter up or down, majority of it is usually reversed within a few hours, and market then pick the true direction. The overall action tomorrow is very important to me. If anyone checks the previous drop that is bigger than 10%, there are big green days like today even if the bears still have control, but quite commonly whatever rally today would be totally reversed tomorrow, or at least in 2 trading days. On the other hand, if ES can hold 4200~4250 range, and starts a sustained rally that takes out the resistance range of 4325~4361 (intraday highs in Mar 4/Mar 7), then most likely we indeed find a bottom, and going a lot higher, potentially new ATH. So let's give it one more day for the market to show its true intention, and don't be married to a particular direction now. If you already long from yesterday low, then this is the perfect time to add some hedge puts to protect your gain.
Bullish:
CL which is exponentially rising since the escalation of Ukraine crisis dropped over 10% today. GC, the most famous safe-heaven commodity also dropped almost 4% from intraday high yesterday. Both are signalling some sort of fear relief today. ES/SPX rallied 2.6% and created a huge green daily bar, stopped almost right at 10MA on daily chart. There is no doubt about today's bullish mood, which is needed to form/confirm a bottom. If these trend continues tomorrow, most likely we have a bottom already, and we may see quick retest of 4580 range around next Wed Fed meeting.
Bearish:
Volatility products like VX/VXX/VVIX indeed drops, but the scale of drop is far from confirm the bottom, on the other hand, the intraday movement of VX is basically sideway while the market clearly grinds up. Any drop in ES would create huge spike in VX, this to me is telling that market does not think the volatility is over yet. Also the rally stopped right at 10day MA, which is the common resistance zone in strong downtrend, and the perfect abc bounce since 4138 low a few days ago, combinely they are forming a perfect storm, waiting to be activated.
Add to that, is the release of the most watched economic indicator in the past few months, CPI, tomorrow morning. And this would create an inflection point right here. So I would assume we go sideways tonight, but does huge swing once CPI is released. Please be alerted that the initial response after CPI, no matter up or down, majority of it is usually reversed within a few hours, and market then pick the true direction. The overall action tomorrow is very important to me. If anyone checks the previous drop that is bigger than 10%, there are big green days like today even if the bears still have control, but quite commonly whatever rally today would be totally reversed tomorrow, or at least in 2 trading days. On the other hand, if ES can hold 4200~4250 range, and starts a sustained rally that takes out the resistance range of 4325~4361 (intraday highs in Mar 4/Mar 7), then most likely we indeed find a bottom, and going a lot higher, potentially new ATH. So let's give it one more day for the market to show its true intention, and don't be married to a particular direction now. If you already long from yesterday low, then this is the perfect time to add some hedge puts to protect your gain.