btc_joe

The Rise and Fall of ETH Part 3 (The great bull trap)

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
7816 27 35
RSI broke down from trend. Price flirting with breaking the parabolic trendline . Could still get one more high to 2.618 ext. but if we start closing candles above there the idea is pretty much invalidated. This feels similar to the bitcoin             bull trap of early 2014 to me, could be wrong of course : )
Comment: broke the parabolic trendline...
Comment: 4h chart...looks like a head and shoulders pattern in the works:
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Comment: Hi all, last update was in the comments, was watching that rising wedge. Since it broke up that pretty much invalidated the bearish head and shoulders pattern and thus it was the clear sign I was wrong. What now is tough to say, definitely still a believer in this general idea, but the price can easily go higher first. There is strong resistance at the 2.618 fib extension so that's where I would expect this to reverse. If not perhaps ETH truly is going to into the stratosphere, but at this market cap relative to bitcoin and all the potential competition coming in for ETH, scaling problems, etc…I doubt it but who knows. Stubborn bear : )
Comment: Here we go, price at resistance now. I think that could be it for ETH...give or take. Probably depends on the bitcoin bottom being in. I think theres great potential for this to be the yearly top and if not at least good for a big drop.

Yes I could be wrong, be careful, blah blah blah. Is this time different? Is ETH about to overtake bitcoin? Anything is possible but its usually unwise to bet against the king. If you disagree feel free to long ETH : ) Anyway, Gluck! Most importantly have fun.
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Comment: Horizontal support seems to be holding well, and stoch rsi screaming for a bounce. Looking for it to become a right shoulder before the big drop down doe. Watch volume, should be weak.
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Comment: Considering the bounce in bitcoin (and negative correlation)...this right shoulder may be brief.
Comment: ...target reached. Beautiful.

Looks like the Coinbase founders were really upset about their $ETH value getting destroyed...they just announced support for ICO's in the future. Time for the exit pump? If not should prolly be good for at least a small bounce.

Comment: Indicators:
Comment: ETH/USD bounce beautifully off of support from 6 month ascending triangle earlier in the year, which also happens to be the .786 fib level. This level should hold at least for now, what happens if bitcoin makes new lows? Hmmm.
Comment: red trendline must have slipped out of wack, fixed it:
Comment: 3d chart...hidden bull divs erry where
Comment: Hmmm lots of hidden bear divs forming at the 200 MA on the daily chart...this could pull back around here. There is a bull flag on lower time frames...keep an eye on it. Daily may have more weight.
Comment: The price broke the flag on the 4h chart...seems we are at a pivotal point here. If we can break the channel--up to at least the .075-.08 range. But I think more likely we get a nice pull back here before higher.Yesterday ETHUSD broke its bear market channel, perhaps that was a hint of what comes next in BTC? If so btc could steal the show for a bit while alt/btc ratios pull back. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oSyDZHiw/Good luck!
Comment: chart link got messed up sorry, here:
Comment: kinda feels like most alts have interim topped...about to test the channel, if we break back below looking for the initial post. Price would have to break the local high to convince me the bull is back.
Comment: Seems like one more leg up (perhaps after some consolidation) then that may be all she wrote:
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Comment: Daily chart...RSI has been a great indicator to watch...hanging on by a thread:
Comment: ...here we go...if .08 falls watch out for a big drop.
Comment: Would you prefer the small hammer or the big hammer? What is the risk reward here? Gluck.
Comment: 2h chart...if we break below .00825 it could be the start of a larger move down.
Comment: Time for another sad face? Destination the same Either way IMO. 2h chart.
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Comment: Here we go... (2h and 1d charts)

Comment: Perhaps the world computer does have one more rally left before it meets its maker. If it breaks the trendline it could even go as far as .011xx but wouldn’t count on it.
Comment: Head and shoulders failed...downtrend resumes
Comment: Pretty much all alts bouncing... *if* and thats a big if... it can back above the neckline there could still be a bit of upside left. Probably best to see which breaks decisively first .076 or .08.
Comment: .076 failed to hold...downtrend resumes.
Comment: Short term target is top of the light blue box...then black dotted trendline eventually.
Comment: Lol SEC declares ETH is not a security. Meh, still don't see it getting back above .0815 level, we'll see.
Comment: Daily RSI (which has been great for ETH/BTC) is giving us a hint : )
Unsure how to interpret the RSI lines in your chart.
Reply
btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, You can make trendlines with RSI same as you can with price...in this case it looks to me like the RSI broke the green supporting trendline and made it resistance (indicating a drop is coming).
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u jinxed it! >;(
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It's hanging in there. Eth continues to lead on price.
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btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, another lower high...
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I jumped back into BTC at 0.084. Phew. So if this thing does hit 0.06 again, is it a “buy”.
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btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, Good question...IMO no this is going into bear market. Perhaps there could be a good quick bounce play but betting against the trend is not really my thing : )
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We dropped from 0.075 to 0.065 2 weeks ago over the weekend and recoverered up to 0.084. How's this different?
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btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, ETH/BTC has been in a bear market since June of 2017, so how is this entire rally different?

If it breaks .08 it's different because it's a resumption of the downtrend IMO and could ultimately lead to the price fully retracing this rally and going lower. Can 0.08 hold and we go to .009-.01 first before doing that? Sure, but the risk reward is down and I wouldn't count on it.
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Thank you so much for sticking with this idea. From watching the chart it sure feels like there's one more extension coming....but maybe not?
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