GreaterNinja

SHORT from .075 to .0647 - news is not signifcant

Short
GreaterNinja Updated   
POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
-Fundamental events show nothing overly bullish to warrant a significant jump in price.
-4 hour stoch rsi shows this is in overbought territory (signal for bearish selloff and then reset in next few 4hr candles)
- 4hr rsi is nominal
-50/200 bearish
-bearish t-k
-macd is negative/bearish
-volume is dropping off

-my other proprietary technical data shows a huge head and shoulder pattern for the long-term is about to complete. However the last 30 days shows a small pump (but not to a-t-h).
-last 7 days show trend reversal is occuring, BUT i do not see enough significant fundamentals/events to say this thing is gonna hit a-t-h.

On the otherhand....

the daily stoch rsi and rsi says this can climb quite a bit.
1h- shows a bullish t-k cross in cloud (bullish neutral)
1h- stoch rsi shows oversold so we may see a big candle pump up...the
1h rsi shows nominal
50/200 is bearish but may cross eventually

My strat is to short from ~.074 to .075 btc/eth until it hits ~.0647 or close to. This is the 200 EMA for the daily. I would think eth/btc price will at least briefly touch it and then find support. I would also say if another hack occurs, we can see this thing drop to ~.06btc/eth. I think I will TP ~.066-.067, which is where it hit a few days ago. I have a small short open. If you guys are super bold short to .06.

Keep in mind with risk of a btc schism, we can see btc value goto ETH. Additionally, loan % rates will be very high on Poloniex due to lack of supply and high demand. Margin right now carries significant risk.
The best strat here might be to open a normal trade (not margin), buy eth and hold it for the next 0-12 months. I can certainly see $300-$500 ETH/USD in the future as there is a huge amount of innovation in Ethereum. Arguably it has the most innovation out of all of the blockchains and this is why it will grow.

These are my thoughts, I've been correct on the last 8 or so trades....lets see what happens.






Comment:
Checked the 4 hour, looks like my idea worked out pretty well. We still have not hit 200 ema on 1D, but it did hit .066-.067. 4 hour says this has quite a bit more to fall, 1 hour says its almost out of gas to push upward and we just had a bearish t-k cross a few hours ago. 1D, which can overrule the smaller candle intervals, says this can push up a lot. However, there is no bullish events to justify such a push.
Comment:
stoch rsi on 4 hour is curving back upward, its currently nominal. I would now wait until there is an oversold signal if you are going to short.
Comment:
4h stoch rsi says overbought. 4hr rsi says approaching overbought.
1h says oversold on stoch rsi. We might see this thing drop OR reach past the 200 ema on 4 hour. Events are still not significant enough to justify a huge pump.
Comment:
4h says eth/btc still going down for next few (1-3) 4 hour candles. I'd say it could be going down for next 4 to 12 hours, but then we might see a pump. eth/usd is going up as total $ in market cap increases. Fundamentals/news is still neutral/bearish.

At this point in time I would go long when Stoch RSI and RSI approaches oversold / bottoms out. I am scaling out of my shorts and plan to go neutral soon.

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