ETH Long - 4 weeks

4 week view on ETH - Euro price.

Two great entry spots:
1.490-500e
2.440-460e .

Why bullish?

• Finished a huge correction from the January high to the April low.
  
• Since the April low, we have seen Wave A bull run then Wave B complex pullback
  
• Distribution from this retracement finished on the lows of 430e
  
• We have started to print Higher Highs & Higher lows once again
  
• MACD just crossed up
  

Risks?

• Volume is below Moving Average
  
• 20,50,100,200 EMA all acting as resistance currently
  
• Resistance is currently 540e
  
• We need a daily candle close above 530 to take out 20,50,200 EMA and turn them into support
  

Forecast?
1.Expecting one more retest of the 50% retracement
2.Saving some fiat in case we re-visit 61.8% retracement
3. Target 650e+ by end of June
4. Sell half of position at 600e

This is not financial advice. Just personal opinion.

Comment:

The SEC news was great. "ETH is not a security". According to twitter this was apparently obvious. I honestly had no idea either way.

ETH has now pumped back into our lower buy box - kudos if you managed to pick up the even cheaper ETH on the drop to 385euro ! I didn't! My final orders were set at 371 :(

I think we may see a continued short term down trend though I will take a deeper look at the chart over the weekend, I have cancelled my buy orders as I believe ETH/$ may be listed on Bitmex soon now it's not a security - which means just about anything can happen short term; ultimately the safest play is to set some buy orders on Gdax around that swing low of 385euros & offset with a short hedge on bitmex vs BTC.

This is not financial advice.