ETH/USD could be repeating itself - Bearish next 6 days

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Have to see how this plays out but ETH/USD on the 2 hour chart looks to be a carbon copy of itself before the last retrace happened.

The Constantinople hard fork of Ethereum on Jan 16th may disrupt this - or maybe this is the last drop before that.

Overall the market is still bearish and shorting is the safest move currently.
Comment: Failed at the 0.786 Fib region for the 5th time.

Thought: ETH Constantinople update news could actually cause sharp sell offs if people have been accumulating, new buyers may panic sell before Jan 16th after it goes down by say $5-$10.
Trade active: Entering a short position on Bitmex

Reasons: Repeated failure to break above 0.786, volume lowering for 4 days, downtrend, bear market + my TA matches.
Comment: Created a version of this chart on the 1 hour chart:
I had my stops set if a higher high came in, still short open, angle was too sharp above but we are still in a downtrend until we hit a higher high.
Reasons: there is no 3 wave in 1-st down wave. correction ? waves is more than all previous down waves.

Karonte marcinchojna
@marcinchojna, u are totally right thats why this analysis failed that much
@Karonte, careful, no higher high for a wave 3 yet, no downtrend for this bearish sub wave scenario either.

But the overall pattern of both subwaves displayed above is still descending with lower highs, we could simply be in a decending triangle.
Karonte stevenslicer
@stevenslicer, almost getting a new high from last swing so... it looks like more than a range, and due hardfork it will be broken, ETH 200 USD....
I think it is beginning of impuls wave 3 upwards
stevenslicer marcinchojna
@marcinchojna, I can see that pattern, let's watch the next few hours, will be interesting to learn what happens :)
marcinchojna stevenslicer
@stevenslicer, :) ok
marcinchojna stevenslicer
@stevenslicer, BTW nice chart :)
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