ETH - Brainstorm Possible Tops for ETH

I compared the 2014-2017 Bitcoin cycle to the 2018-2021 Ethereum cycle to see how the two coin stacks up and whether Bitcoin can reveal anything about where Ethereum is going.

Observations:

• Bitcoin continued climbing once it posted a golden cross (20MA over 200) in October 2015. Growth was gradual but consistent until 2017 and eventually cycle top.
  
• Bitcoin MAs remain positive with no notable crosses until the cycle top.
  
• Bitcoin climbed over 13,000% from 2014 to 2017 top.
  
• Ethereum posted two golden crosses, the first led to a false breakout in 2019, the second appeared in May of 2020 after recovering from the COVID black swan
  
• Ethereum MAs remain positive since the May 2020 golden cross
  

Prediction/Assumptions:

• Prediction 1: assume the cycle maps to the first golden cross, and repeats Bitcoin's ~1000 timeline from there, we will reach around 16k by November 2021
  
• Prediction 2: assume the cycle maps to the depth of the Bitcoin growth (~13,500%)- we arrive around 10k ETH by September 2021.
  
• Prediction 3: assume the cycle maps to the second golden cross, and repeats Bitcoin's ~1000 day timeline from there, and assume the current 19 degree uptrend holds as an average, we will see 85k Ethereum by June 2022 (this seems extremely unlikely but I'm sharing what the charts say, not what I believe is possible in a year)
  
• Precition 4: we reach around 5k in June of 2021, this is a reasonable price target in my opinion but left it on here to show that if we continue on this trend angle we should reach 5k ETH within a month
  
  Note: During Bitcoin's rise up in 2017, it produced at least 3 different trend angles the longer the bullish breakout went on. Each one was more aggressive than the last. I do not account for this in my TA here, but it would suggest that where I list 5k ETH, it could reach as high at 9k. Where I list 16k ETH, it could reach as high as 24k. And where I list 85k, it could go higher towards 100k.
  
  Note 2: While I am extremely bullish on ETH and its larger ecosystem, I don't think 80k or 100k ETH is practical at this time. My gut says 25k ETH is the high end of what we would achieve this cycle, but 5k could also be the top, in a worst case scenario.
  
  As always, this is just my opinion. Glad to hear what you think. Good luck trading.