JMohn
Long

ETH/USD - does it correlate with my other charts?

COINBASE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
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I did charts for ETH/BTC and BTC/USD, so naturally I was curious if I did a chart for ETH/USD, would I find any interesting correlations?

Without referencing the other charts, I used Elliott Waves and Fibonacci ratios to forecast ETH/USD. Wave 2 is 0.618 of Wave 1, so it appears to be completed. If Wave 3 is 1.618 of Wave 1, I don't think ETH is going to break its all time high of $420. If it hits a much more aggressive 2.618 of Wave 1, it should make it to $531, which is a 1.272 Fibonacci extension and nearly equal to the previous move. It would have to get even more aggressive to hit the 1.618 extension .

In my other charts, I forecast BTC targets at $3600, $4000, and $4400, and ETH/BTC targets at 0.19, 0.21, and 0.24BTC.

If both previous charts hit their first target: $3600 x 0.19 = $684 ETH/USD, that's in the neighborhood of Target 2.

If both charts hit their high end: $4400 x 0.24 = $1,056 ETH/USD. I went back the the ETH/USD chart and looked at it again. $1,056 is in the neighborhood of a 2.618 extension of the Fibonacci. Working backwards from that point, I constructed what the waves might look like and concluded that it is possible that Waves 1 and 2 are invalid and Wave 1 is still going. (clearly the chart just shows possible price levels, not timing) If that is correct, Wave 1 will end somewhere between where the two previous Wave 3 levels, which means it's going to be really difficult to confirm if this is a big Wave 1 or a reasonable Wave 3 until much later.

Target 3 would be an enormous move, which seems somewhat unlikely to me. It should also be noted that I do not expect BTC and ETH to move in lockstep with each other, nor do I attempt to determine timing on my charts, so it's possible all three charts will eventually be proven out at different times. Obviously it's also possible that one or all three charts will be proven incorrect.

Even if ETH doesn't break it's all time high (maybe call it Target 0.5?), the Risk:Reward ratio looks pretty good. Put the stop loss below 0.618 ratio, trail stops up with market structure, and see where it goes.
Aug 05
Comment: I think I accidentally made my Bitcoin chart private, so here it is for reference:
I like your optimism. but lets watch it go up to 263 first.
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For now, I think ETH is headed back to the $200 zone.
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@guppy_, i got right around 205-210 but still coming back down from current price either way
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JMohn guppy_
@guppy_, it certainly could, especially in the short term. I think once it crosses the $240, it's a pretty good sign that it's going up again.
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