TheMacroStrategist

87% Down But Not Out? Is EM Rotating?

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum
Today, we saw a broad-based crypto rally which was somewhat surprising but lets look and see where this leaves us.

Despite the boost, ETHUSD is still down 87 percent from the top. The rate of change has moved from negative to postive, which is bullish; and hit the highest ROC in a month.


What could have potentially pushed this move in ETH or crypto in general? EM FX weakness.

Here is the USDTRY and ETHUSD. The sudden, rapid collapse in the lira caught many off guard. However, I noticed a flood into tether/lira (not supposed by tradingview). They are looking for dollar equivalents and other assets. Once Erdogan pinched off the ability to short lira, USDTRY fell and ETHUSD began to climb.

When I tweeted about this, the ROC in ETH and BTC went from negative to positive. A coincidence?

(tweet on tether/TRY: twitter.com/TheMacro.../1111321534679957505)


I have placed both near- and intermediate trading ranges (blue, near; yellow, intermediate) on the chart. We could experience a pull back but if this is the result of capital outflows, the momentum will break it higher.

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