ETHUSD proper C wave requires at least 1 more leg down.
2 different long setups. Targets and stops and entries can be seen on the graph. Will split the capital in 2 different trades - 1/3 will follow the long term trade and 2/3 will follow shorter term (but higher winrate) setup.
If we never see a lower leg, it's possible, means my count was wrong. Also, not calling to short from these levels, it's much closer to the bottom than potential target and is very iffy (most likely 1 more leg down). In previous ideas, I have already shorted from $830 and took profit on that at $660. Long from $540 was closed at $603 as well (if we don't make another leg lower, I will have cut my profit short there).
If we never see a lower leg, it's possible, means my count was wrong. Also, not calling to short from these levels, it's much closer to the bottom than potential target and is very iffy (most likely 1 more leg down). In previous ideas, I have already shorted from $830 and took profit on that at $660. Long from $540 was closed at $603 as well (if we don't make another leg lower, I will have cut my profit short there).
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And yet another leg down is possible. Cutting the long amount by half. Adding back either if we make a new low under 490 or if we start looking much more bullish (will update in that case).
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Treding HnS target, currently sitting around 453 and going up about $2.2 a day.
Not sure how that will fit with EWs count, we might overperform HnS target to complete 5 waves of C OR maybe we will have a truncated 5th or ending diagonal wave C to end at the HnS target.
Treding HnS target, currently sitting around 453 and going up about $2.2 a day.
Not sure how that will fit with EWs count, we might overperform HnS target to complete 5 waves of C OR maybe we will have a truncated 5th or ending diagonal wave C to end at the HnS target.
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With HnS target still pointing to more downside and even the bullish count still having room to the downside (and even more so for bearish count), I will close the long and re-enter lower with big portion at the HnS target and some more at the end of 5th wave.
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Even though the original idea was getting long at $530, the situation is looking adverse as we got here. No sense to have this long now, when multiple things point that we still have some downside movement. Now the long entry moved to $450s and $430s. Is it a good idea to go short now? Maybe, but since we are much closer to bottom than top now, I'd rather wait more for the extreme movement potential of a long lower.
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Some serious bullish action is going on right now. It still can be possible that the count is correct and it simply is doing an ending diagonal C. If it retraces above $616, then the count is completely invalidated and most likely I will watch for a retrace to enter long. Right now it's still possible that it makes new lows under $500, but not as likely as before.
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IMPORTANT! So if I was wrong and we have started new wave up (wave 3), RIGHT NOW would be an amazing time to buy (we most likely have finished wave C of wave 2. Entry - 540s, Stop $539-538, Target1 - $665, target2 - $1200s. Even tho I think we actually have NOT ended this correction and are about to see under $500, this TIMING is perfect even for a low probability/winrate trade. The Risk/Reward is just too good!
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Moved stop loss to $533 (under 0.618 Fib + under 1 extension of wave 1 of this small correction).
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Moving stop loss to $538. Either we are making B wave, in which case C wave can end anywhere, but $533 would be irrelevant or we have finished C of 2 (which would be why I bought yesterday) and just made a (1) of 3, in which case we can't go lower than the previous low.
And all this is still unlikely, this trade would work if I am wrong. If I am right I will get stopped out and we will go under $500 to finish bigger wave C, where I will re-enter. However, the reward to risk right now is ~12 for target 1 and much larger for target 2, so this trade was too good not to take, even if I think it's unlikely to work.
And all this is still unlikely, this trade would work if I am wrong. If I am right I will get stopped out and we will go under $500 to finish bigger wave C, where I will re-enter. However, the reward to risk right now is ~12 for target 1 and much larger for target 2, so this trade was too good not to take, even if I think it's unlikely to work.
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With an ascending wedge that have already broken down after unexpectedly high correction (if it was a correction wave 4 upwards like I initially thought) it's hard to say what is the best move at the moment. When there is no "screaming" trading decision like it is now* and both bullish and bearish points being present, it's best not to do anything. To give myself piece of mind, I reduced my long slightly at $570s, lowering my BE price to $540, which is under the small wave 2, where I entered. There is no clear read on the market or a clear count. Let the market do its thing and if I was wrong entering this trade, I won't lose anything with a stop-loss at my BE (well I lose a bit on the fees), but if I am correct - let the market do its thing and get to my profit targets. What's left to do now is just to "sit on my hands". With my stop loss at BE and my BE being under a significant, meaningful price point (wave (2) @$541 low) I can sit on my hands without much trouble :)
*There was an (almost) screaming decision at the top of the wedge $580s a couple of hours ago, but I didn't act on it and now I feel like it's too late to react on it.
*There was an (almost) screaming decision at the top of the wedge $580s a couple of hours ago, but I didn't act on it and now I feel like it's too late to react on it.
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Since the initial conditions under which I entered this trade defined my stop loss and my target, and neither of those were hit, there is no point to reacting to whatever is happening now. (also the initial conditions are not *clearly* denied by the market)
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This move and the market doesn't look too bullish.
The volume is pretty weak on this ascent.
In terms of EWs, this is ambiguous. It makes sense to get out now, secure the profits. But this time I am in a good position to practice going against the human nature that makes us being risk averse when dealing with profits and being risk-seeking when dealing with losses.
I will be risk seeking and hope that the market keeps going (and it did not still give any clear sign that it will drop).
Finally after months and months I am practicing what I should have been all along - letting my profit run as opposed to letting my losses run.
Even in my ETHUSD short that I had just a couple of weeks ago posted on TV I took the profit too early. I have had a perfect setup and really good targets. Instead of letting my profits run and hitting my main target I got out with a big chunk at a short-term support and closed the rest at my target 1 (when in reality I knew or rather I should have known and hoped that we should reach target 2 and in fact we eventually went even lower).
Holding this long till $650 at least.
The volume is pretty weak on this ascent.
In terms of EWs, this is ambiguous. It makes sense to get out now, secure the profits. But this time I am in a good position to practice going against the human nature that makes us being risk averse when dealing with profits and being risk-seeking when dealing with losses.
I will be risk seeking and hope that the market keeps going (and it did not still give any clear sign that it will drop).
Finally after months and months I am practicing what I should have been all along - letting my profit run as opposed to letting my losses run.
Even in my ETHUSD short that I had just a couple of weeks ago posted on TV I took the profit too early. I have had a perfect setup and really good targets. Instead of letting my profits run and hitting my main target I got out with a big chunk at a short-term support and closed the rest at my target 1 (when in reality I knew or rather I should have known and hoped that we should reach target 2 and in fact we eventually went even lower).
Holding this long till $650 at least.
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This is what I mean - the move and the market doesn't look bullish.
This is what I mean - the move and the market doesn't look bullish.
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If you were in for a short swing trade, right now is a good time to get out. I am looking at the possibility of this being the start of wave 3, but it's more likely that there correction will continue. It might get pretty painful soon to hold this long, I might lose most of my "gain" compared to $620s, I might even get stopped out. I might blame myself for holding it :)
But just for the sake of experiment and growth of qualities that I wish to have as a trader, I will hold thru for the sake of "let your winners run". For short-term trades I think it's a pretty good spot to get out tho. $603 currently, dropped $5 from when I started writing it :)
But just for the sake of experiment and growth of qualities that I wish to have as a trader, I will hold thru for the sake of "let your winners run". For short-term trades I think it's a pretty good spot to get out tho. $603 currently, dropped $5 from when I started writing it :)
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Old me would have sold here for sure.
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Well, old me would have done a better job in this trade then :)
I am torn on what to do now, from one side we just had a break of the triangle on the BTCUSD:
On another hand, this is a really bad place to sell, near a bottom.
I have manually canceled my stop at $540. So right now in the red.
I am torn on what to do now, from one side we just had a break of the triangle on the BTCUSD:
On another hand, this is a really bad place to sell, near a bottom.
I have manually canceled my stop at $540. So right now in the red.
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The reason for this long is no longer valid (wave "2" went under the wave "1" bottom)
I will try to get out on the nearest decent pullback (preferably at my BE if I can) and look for another trade.
I will try to get out on the nearest decent pullback (preferably at my BE if I can) and look for another trade.
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Going long from $477-492 area. Completing wave 5 of 5 down soon, at least a good bounce is likely.