In order to have a better understanding of the whole picture, I have to start with the I. Fundamental knowledge of the market (any market). However, you can actually start with II. Market cycle overview, if you are already familiar with the market structure.
I. Fundamental knowledge
In this section, I will share with you some critical fundamental knowledge of how the whales view and move the market. Remember, the market is carried out by the composition of institutional whales, isolated whales, weak hands and retailers. In order not to have a bias or ignorant understanding, we should be well informed.
First of all, we need to understand the basic rules of how market was moved by the market makers (Big Whales) in 7 critical steps based on Ooolong's "Game of deceive".
A. Position Building
According to Wolong, "There are multiple ways to build a position. This is the stage where we will require a significant amount of market share to do pumps. The most common method will be micro buys. Through placing of buy order in relatively small amounts, it avoids driving up prices and also masked our existence. Some alternate coins, however, has really low amount of volume, and it will take ages to build up our position through micro buys. In such cases, we will be force to do a pump up, to encourage sellers. Pump waves will be gradually decreasing, smaller and smaller, forcing out all sellers so that we can have what we want - market share. This has happened many times infact to date, such as Doge/BTC, UNO/BTC, Dev/BTC and GLC/BTC" .
B. Suppressing prices
According to Wolong, "Contradicting isn't it? That we are willing to pump altcoins up a few times of it's value worth before driving down it prices. And yes, like I have stated earlier on, prices does not matter to us as long we can sell higher. However, like every other business on the industry, everyone would want their costs to be as low as possible. In this very stage, we will pile up whatever we have bought, to suppress prices as much as possible through sell walls so that we are able to do our buying cheap. Our sell walls are usually just enough to appear as though as it's the invisble hands of the market, minor supply over demand" .
C. Test Pump
According to OooLong, "Before a real pump happens, whales like us tends to test the market. Why? Reason is simple. It is to ensure that we have absolute control of the market. Test pump, like shakeouts, actual pumps, re-allocation and distribution, happens many time throughout the pump and dump process. By doing a test pump, we will roughly get an idea on where our next resistance will be and how much floating chips are around (Floating chips refers to weak hands). Whales hate weak hands, they do not act as any form of support for us during a pump, and we will are always determine to get rid of them in the early stages, no matter how long it takes" .
D. Actual Pump
According to Ooolong, "The term pretty much explains everything. When weak hands are being forced out, and we have gain the market share that we expect, we are ready to move" .
E. Shakeouts
According to Ooolong, "Shakeout is a deliberately forced price reaction, whose purpose is that of stimulating public selling in order to facilitate the accumulation of speculative positions. This is the most aggressive part in wiping out weak hands of their positions. Sometimes during a shakeout, we can be so aggressive that we drive prices so low that's it's way below our cost price. Losses does not matter to us, it is only on paper, and we have enough bankroll to pump prices back up. Individuals who have no experienced or unable to withstand such psychological torture will usually exit the market at this stage" .
F. Re-allocation and distribution
According to Ooolong, "Re-allocation and distribution usually serves the purpose for us to re-balance our portfolio. In a test pump, we might distribute you some of our shares (coins). The logic is quite simple, sometimes during a pump, buying into our own walls and others, we bought more than expected. We will have to release a few back to the individual traders. At times, it serves as a support, and reduce our risk exposure or being a "safe trap". What do I mean by that? For example if you were to distribute you at $5 and then we were to drive prices back down to $4.50, we will know that the total amount of shares being distributed at $5 will not be selling at $5. Traders tends to exit when in profit and are unlikely to exit with break even costs. I used the word "safe" is because, this is not the part where we will be dumping. There are a lot of re-allocation and distribution, like shuffling a pack of cards throughout the entire process, and prices tend to go much higher than the price that you are "trapped" at" .
G. Exiting - The Dump
According to Ooolong, "This is usually the last stage. The part where we take our profits and completely exiting the market. There are many exit strategies available to us. I will be revealing some of it and explain. The most common mindset everyone had is that we either micro sell or massively dump into buy walls during a dump. Theses are just the basic. Usually by exiting via this method, gives us really a bad price to sell at. One of the exotic methods we used : "Exit during a pump". This works by having sell walls in place, and buying into our own walls again and again aggressively until the crowd follows. Once they follow, they will be biting into our walls. Hence we are able to exit portions of it, bits by bits, rinse and repeat a few times, we will be able to exit the market completely. Another method is known as "Exit by putting a sell wall". Well, many of you who follows my trades on #dogecoin-market, knows that I like having sell walls up to suppress prices and buy doges cheap. However, I am able to imply this strategy by deceiving everyone into thinking that I am merely capping prices but the fact is, I am micro selling my way out" .
Secondly, we need to figure out why and how the whales perform accumulation and distribution according to Wyckoff .
"Wyckoff's chart-based methodology rests on three fundamental “laws” that affect many aspects of analysis. These include determining the market's and individual stocks' current and potential future directional bias, selecting the best stocks to trade long or short, identifying the readiness of a stock to leave a trading range and projecting price targets in a trend from a stock’s behavior in a trading range. These laws inform the analysis of every chart and the selection of every stock to trade.
A. The law of supply and demand
It determines the price direction. This principle is central to Wyckoff's method of trading and investing. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall. The trader/analyst can study the balance between supply and demand by comparing price and volume bars over time. This law is deceptively simple, but learning to accurately evaluate supply and demand on bar charts, as well as understanding the implications of supply and demand patterns, takes considerable practice.
B. The law of cause and effect
It helps the trader and investor set price objectives by gauging the potential extent of a trend emerging from a trading range. Wyckoff's “cause” can be measured by the horizontal point count in a Point and Figure chart, while the “effect” is the distance price moves corresponding to the point count. This law's operation can be seen as the force of accumulation or distribution within a trading range, as well as how this force works itself out in a subsequent trend or movement up or down. Point and Figure chart counts are used to measure a cause and project the extent of its effect. (See “Point and Figure Count Guide” below for an illustration of this law.)
C. The law of effort versus result
It provides an early warning of a possible change in trend in the near future. Divergences between volume and price often signal a change in the direction of a price trend. For example, when there are several high-volume (large effort) but narrow-range price bars after a substantial rally, with the price failing to make a new high (little or no result), this suggests that big interests are unloading shares in anticipation of a change in trend" .
I. Fundamental knowledge
In this section, I will share with you some critical fundamental knowledge of how the whales view and move the market. Remember, the market is carried out by the composition of institutional whales, isolated whales, weak hands and retailers. In order not to have a bias or ignorant understanding, we should be well informed.
First of all, we need to understand the basic rules of how market was moved by the market makers (Big Whales) in 7 critical steps based on Ooolong's "Game of deceive".
A. Position Building
According to Wolong, "There are multiple ways to build a position. This is the stage where we will require a significant amount of market share to do pumps. The most common method will be micro buys. Through placing of buy order in relatively small amounts, it avoids driving up prices and also masked our existence. Some alternate coins, however, has really low amount of volume, and it will take ages to build up our position through micro buys. In such cases, we will be force to do a pump up, to encourage sellers. Pump waves will be gradually decreasing, smaller and smaller, forcing out all sellers so that we can have what we want - market share. This has happened many times infact to date, such as Doge/BTC, UNO/BTC, Dev/BTC and GLC/BTC" .
B. Suppressing prices
According to Wolong, "Contradicting isn't it? That we are willing to pump altcoins up a few times of it's value worth before driving down it prices. And yes, like I have stated earlier on, prices does not matter to us as long we can sell higher. However, like every other business on the industry, everyone would want their costs to be as low as possible. In this very stage, we will pile up whatever we have bought, to suppress prices as much as possible through sell walls so that we are able to do our buying cheap. Our sell walls are usually just enough to appear as though as it's the invisble hands of the market, minor supply over demand" .
C. Test Pump
According to OooLong, "Before a real pump happens, whales like us tends to test the market. Why? Reason is simple. It is to ensure that we have absolute control of the market. Test pump, like shakeouts, actual pumps, re-allocation and distribution, happens many time throughout the pump and dump process. By doing a test pump, we will roughly get an idea on where our next resistance will be and how much floating chips are around (Floating chips refers to weak hands). Whales hate weak hands, they do not act as any form of support for us during a pump, and we will are always determine to get rid of them in the early stages, no matter how long it takes" .
D. Actual Pump
According to Ooolong, "The term pretty much explains everything. When weak hands are being forced out, and we have gain the market share that we expect, we are ready to move" .
E. Shakeouts
According to Ooolong, "Shakeout is a deliberately forced price reaction, whose purpose is that of stimulating public selling in order to facilitate the accumulation of speculative positions. This is the most aggressive part in wiping out weak hands of their positions. Sometimes during a shakeout, we can be so aggressive that we drive prices so low that's it's way below our cost price. Losses does not matter to us, it is only on paper, and we have enough bankroll to pump prices back up. Individuals who have no experienced or unable to withstand such psychological torture will usually exit the market at this stage" .
F. Re-allocation and distribution
According to Ooolong, "Re-allocation and distribution usually serves the purpose for us to re-balance our portfolio. In a test pump, we might distribute you some of our shares (coins). The logic is quite simple, sometimes during a pump, buying into our own walls and others, we bought more than expected. We will have to release a few back to the individual traders. At times, it serves as a support, and reduce our risk exposure or being a "safe trap". What do I mean by that? For example if you were to distribute you at $5 and then we were to drive prices back down to $4.50, we will know that the total amount of shares being distributed at $5 will not be selling at $5. Traders tends to exit when in profit and are unlikely to exit with break even costs. I used the word "safe" is because, this is not the part where we will be dumping. There are a lot of re-allocation and distribution, like shuffling a pack of cards throughout the entire process, and prices tend to go much higher than the price that you are "trapped" at" .
G. Exiting - The Dump
According to Ooolong, "This is usually the last stage. The part where we take our profits and completely exiting the market. There are many exit strategies available to us. I will be revealing some of it and explain. The most common mindset everyone had is that we either micro sell or massively dump into buy walls during a dump. Theses are just the basic. Usually by exiting via this method, gives us really a bad price to sell at. One of the exotic methods we used : "Exit during a pump". This works by having sell walls in place, and buying into our own walls again and again aggressively until the crowd follows. Once they follow, they will be biting into our walls. Hence we are able to exit portions of it, bits by bits, rinse and repeat a few times, we will be able to exit the market completely. Another method is known as "Exit by putting a sell wall". Well, many of you who follows my trades on #dogecoin-market, knows that I like having sell walls up to suppress prices and buy doges cheap. However, I am able to imply this strategy by deceiving everyone into thinking that I am merely capping prices but the fact is, I am micro selling my way out" .
Secondly, we need to figure out why and how the whales perform accumulation and distribution according to Wyckoff .
"Wyckoff's chart-based methodology rests on three fundamental “laws” that affect many aspects of analysis. These include determining the market's and individual stocks' current and potential future directional bias, selecting the best stocks to trade long or short, identifying the readiness of a stock to leave a trading range and projecting price targets in a trend from a stock’s behavior in a trading range. These laws inform the analysis of every chart and the selection of every stock to trade.
A. The law of supply and demand
It determines the price direction. This principle is central to Wyckoff's method of trading and investing. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall. The trader/analyst can study the balance between supply and demand by comparing price and volume bars over time. This law is deceptively simple, but learning to accurately evaluate supply and demand on bar charts, as well as understanding the implications of supply and demand patterns, takes considerable practice.
B. The law of cause and effect
It helps the trader and investor set price objectives by gauging the potential extent of a trend emerging from a trading range. Wyckoff's “cause” can be measured by the horizontal point count in a Point and Figure chart, while the “effect” is the distance price moves corresponding to the point count. This law's operation can be seen as the force of accumulation or distribution within a trading range, as well as how this force works itself out in a subsequent trend or movement up or down. Point and Figure chart counts are used to measure a cause and project the extent of its effect. (See “Point and Figure Count Guide” below for an illustration of this law.)
C. The law of effort versus result
It provides an early warning of a possible change in trend in the near future. Divergences between volume and price often signal a change in the direction of a price trend. For example, when there are several high-volume (large effort) but narrow-range price bars after a substantial rally, with the price failing to make a new high (little or no result), this suggests that big interests are unloading shares in anticipation of a change in trend" .
Achieve every thing but stay discipline
从心所欲不逾矩.
从心所欲不逾矩.