ETHUSD: Formations Point To 490s. Signal Is Key.

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through takes this market back to the low 450s. This comes after a buy trigger appeared on Saturday at 464. More interesting is the fact that BTC pushed higher while the majority of the alts remained weak. What happened to "follow the leader"?

At S.C., we were able to save our followers from this lack of momentum that began with the trigger on Saturday. Instead of buying like the herd, we called for a limit order way under the market.

And more importantly we sent an instruction to cancel that order today by noon. People who followed were able to avoid the pull back into the 440s and are now patiently waiting for the next opportunity.

Price is probing the 455 to 439 support zone . This is our next area of focus and IF the right signal appears, we will share our next swing trade long idea.

Do not bang your head against the wall trying to figure out why the alts are not following the leader. When it comes to short term market timing, it really doesn't matter why. Relationships between markets change constantly, and that is all you really need to know. As we say at S.C., it works until it doesn't.

Patterns, levels and formations offer a much better clue as to what is likely to happen next. Not abstract intermarket relationships or fundamental logic.

At S.C., we are anticipating a bullish retrace over the next 8 days. There is no guarantee that it will unfold this way, but if the right signs show up, we are prepared to buy.

In summary, do not always measure a trade call by its profit target. If a strategy or method can also help prevent losses, that is just as good as a win. Anyone can call trades, but not everyone can call for a good market defense.

Location plays an important role when evaluating the probabilities of a particular idea or outcome. And the location of price in this market certainly features some compelling formations that make for an attractive long. It is just a matter of the right signal and having the patience to wait for it.
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In my experience watching this market since 2014, when bitcoin departs from the herd it usually signals a change in market environment. Such as a transition from bear to bull. Bitcoin always leads the charge in any direction. Alts normally follow one or two at a time.

Also, bitcoin has broken my upper downward trend line in its falling wedge and is headed for battle at 10k, the previous high. Volume is starting to return. I expect alts will trail weakly along until 10k is broken and tested.
Could it be just that demand/supply for btc/usd ( leveraged trading) is higher than demand/supply for altcoins? They are mosty traded against bitcoins.
Actually your previous swing signal for ETH was quite good.I entered around 448 and exit 471, that is 23 points.
IMHO, ALTs are falling because they are heavily sold and the money are ALL flowing to BTC. Until BTC will not reach the target it is supposed to reach (I do not know what this target is), the ALTs will be heavily sold.
Looks like market wants to ding low $430s before heading higher, this is highly likely specially IF we see BTC pull back to low $7000s.
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