You’ll see the green price channel, coupled with steady growth in the daily volume on GDAX. The bottom of the green channel climbs by $1.06 every day, with a daily average increase in volume of 878 ETH. Save for the flash crash on July 21, the USD cost of ETH never dips below the boundary of this channel. The price rocketed upward when the Bollinger Bands tightened up. This would form a “flagpole”, which was followed by periods of consolidation at the higher price point. This pattern, known as a “bullish continuation pennant”, was fairly predictable during the rise. Prior to the yellow bubble, RSI appears to have also been an excellent indicator for entry and exit points as the price grew at a rapid, but steady pace. RSI above 88? Sell. RSI below 64? Buy.
The yellow dome highlights what I’m calling the ICO Bubble. This is a period of time when many tokens made their initial offerings. These tokens were purchased with ETH, and generated billions of aggregate dollars in instant revenue for the projects. Most of these token sales were finished in the span of a few blocks, indicating a clear lack of rationality/due diligence from the buyers. It is possible that these token projects converting ETH to USD may have stopped the rapid growth, and even triggered the flash crash. Prior to the peak price of $420, you can see that the RSI is often at 80, indicating that ETHUSD is overbought. The marked spikes (thumbs down) on the RSI at 90 appear to have been profitable exit points, and the RSI never dipped below 67 prior to the peak.
At $420, you will observe wicks on high-volume candles which dip $40-$50, and the flash crash which momentarily dropped the price of ETH to pennies via cascading stop orders. This event may be responsible for the -$200, month long bear run which followed. At the time, the RSI was reset to the buyline at 64, however the damage was done.
Personally, I made large purchases at $250, $200, and $175. When the bottom finally came in at $130, I was sweating bullets. A high volume recovery, which bounced the price into a trajectory which lies in the “organic growth” channel, eventually settled the price at ~$200.
Per Vitalik Buterin’s comments, it can be estimated that major protocol improvements will be ready to ship in the coming months. An upgrade to the long awaited “Metropolis” release promises to open the gates for Proof of Stake. Projects like “Raiden”, which is similar to Bitcoin’s “Lightning”, are progressing and appear to have a similar expected date of release, and will greatly reduce the load on the Ethereum blockchain, while increasing speed by factors. Signs of adoption, experimentation and growth are plentiful in the corporate world. The EEA has added more members, including MasterCard, during the bear run which did not receive a great deal of media attention. Many large corporations have been spotted placing want ads for developers with experience relating directly to Ethereum.
It appears that the correction from the ICO bubble has occurred, and consolidation is taking place at a pricepoint which is conspicuously level with the price’s re-entry into the “organic” growth channel. Fundamental changes to Bitcoin, additional technological competitors, and astonishing overall growth in the cryptocurrency sector have changed the game that was played during the bull run. Competitors no longer have a single foe, and it appears that even nations are beginning to test the waters.
I fully expect to see much of the value that is currently held in BCH to distribute itself to other assets in the cryptospace, including BTC. However, I don’t expect BTC to remain at the top of marketcap mountain for much longer. As the BBands tighten on ETHUSD, RSI has reset to a neutral position. Liquidity appears to have dried up. This situation has previously been a great time to establish a long position.
If volume picks up in the next week, ETHUSD may be in for another amazing few months.
The yellow dome highlights what I’m calling the ICO Bubble. This is a period of time when many tokens made their initial offerings. These tokens were purchased with ETH, and generated billions of aggregate dollars in instant revenue for the projects. Most of these token sales were finished in the span of a few blocks, indicating a clear lack of rationality/due diligence from the buyers. It is possible that these token projects converting ETH to USD may have stopped the rapid growth, and even triggered the flash crash. Prior to the peak price of $420, you can see that the RSI is often at 80, indicating that ETHUSD is overbought. The marked spikes (thumbs down) on the RSI at 90 appear to have been profitable exit points, and the RSI never dipped below 67 prior to the peak.
At $420, you will observe wicks on high-volume candles which dip $40-$50, and the flash crash which momentarily dropped the price of ETH to pennies via cascading stop orders. This event may be responsible for the -$200, month long bear run which followed. At the time, the RSI was reset to the buyline at 64, however the damage was done.
Personally, I made large purchases at $250, $200, and $175. When the bottom finally came in at $130, I was sweating bullets. A high volume recovery, which bounced the price into a trajectory which lies in the “organic growth” channel, eventually settled the price at ~$200.
Per Vitalik Buterin’s comments, it can be estimated that major protocol improvements will be ready to ship in the coming months. An upgrade to the long awaited “Metropolis” release promises to open the gates for Proof of Stake. Projects like “Raiden”, which is similar to Bitcoin’s “Lightning”, are progressing and appear to have a similar expected date of release, and will greatly reduce the load on the Ethereum blockchain, while increasing speed by factors. Signs of adoption, experimentation and growth are plentiful in the corporate world. The EEA has added more members, including MasterCard, during the bear run which did not receive a great deal of media attention. Many large corporations have been spotted placing want ads for developers with experience relating directly to Ethereum.
It appears that the correction from the ICO bubble has occurred, and consolidation is taking place at a pricepoint which is conspicuously level with the price’s re-entry into the “organic” growth channel. Fundamental changes to Bitcoin, additional technological competitors, and astonishing overall growth in the cryptocurrency sector have changed the game that was played during the bull run. Competitors no longer have a single foe, and it appears that even nations are beginning to test the waters.
I fully expect to see much of the value that is currently held in BCH to distribute itself to other assets in the cryptospace, including BTC. However, I don’t expect BTC to remain at the top of marketcap mountain for much longer. As the BBands tighten on ETHUSD, RSI has reset to a neutral position. Liquidity appears to have dried up. This situation has previously been a great time to establish a long position.
If volume picks up in the next week, ETHUSD may be in for another amazing few months.