Its been a few days since my last update so I wanted to start with this image of the daily chart shown above. You can see that the price reached $835 5 days ago, which was only $15 short of my target of $850. During that leg up we saw the daily TD indicator reach an 8. We would have liked to see it reach a 9 before retracing, but we know nothing is perfect. Now the trend has switched and we are on the 5th day of the downward trend. I think that this will go on for another 2 - 4 days, and ideally we will see a daily buy setup appear, but just like we saw with the upward trend, it may end before that 9 appears.
The weekly chart supports the mid term trend. We are in the 4th week of an upward trend, and the price would need to fall to about $625 to reverse this trend. Will it fall to this level?
If you take a look at the ETHUSD Longs chart below you see that there has been a steady increase of long positions over the past 5 days, despite the drop in price. Longs have not yet evacuated their positions, which shows that there is confidence that this mid term upward trend will continue.
Additionally, we have seen an increase in ETHUSD Shorts over the past 5 days as shown by the chart below. The pressure from shorts should suppress the price for a few more days, as the TD indicator is suggesting.
For these reasons I have come to the following conclusions:
1. The price will continue to fall for another 2 - 4 days, hopefully no further than $625 before reversing the daily trend.
2. The mid-long term upward trend is still intact and the price will rebound quickly if it does not fall far below $625.
3. If the price falls below $625 and we see longs leave their positions, the price may dip to the low $500's, but honestly I do not know where the price would settle if this happened.
Good Luck and Happy Trading!
The weekly chart supports the mid term trend. We are in the 4th week of an upward trend, and the price would need to fall to about $625 to reverse this trend. Will it fall to this level?
If you take a look at the ETHUSD Longs chart below you see that there has been a steady increase of long positions over the past 5 days, despite the drop in price. Longs have not yet evacuated their positions, which shows that there is confidence that this mid term upward trend will continue.
Additionally, we have seen an increase in ETHUSD Shorts over the past 5 days as shown by the chart below. The pressure from shorts should suppress the price for a few more days, as the TD indicator is suggesting.
For these reasons I have come to the following conclusions:
1. The price will continue to fall for another 2 - 4 days, hopefully no further than $625 before reversing the daily trend.
2. The mid-long term upward trend is still intact and the price will rebound quickly if it does not fall far below $625.
3. If the price falls below $625 and we see longs leave their positions, the price may dip to the low $500's, but honestly I do not know where the price would settle if this happened.
Good Luck and Happy Trading!
Comment:
New week began last night at 8 pm. We are trading above the close of 3 candles prior, and therefore have switched the daily trend. Important to note that now we are in a new week, the close 3 candles prior is about $690. If we go below, that will change the weekly trend.
Comment:
In the 2nd sentence I was referring to the daily chart. My apologies.
