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ETH rally or crash

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum
Please take this analysis not too serious - but take in mind nevertheless.
As the most of the cryptocurrencies Ethereum has had a really bad time since beginning 2018. It has lost 94% from the high to the low. The lowest price on bitfinex was 82$. Todays price is at 134$.

Fundamentally it doesn´t look too bad for the token, the last hardfork (constantinople) has been realized in the second attempt. But still there are a couple of things to do, as the casper-protocol, if ETH want to have a prosperous future.

On the other hand, the ETHEREUM blockchain is one of the most known blockchain and has been implemented in various use cases, beeing the source of some other coins and tokens.

As Bitcoin is the most important coin, Ethereum is the most important token (blockchain); up to now.

So what´s the current situation for the token in technical analysis?

The token has had three periods of falling prices since january 2018.
The first and steepest from jan 15 2018 to april 07 2018.
The second from may 06 2018 to november 14 2018 - with an smaller angle.
And the third with a beginning september 22 2018 - overlapping the second period - and still going on. This third has an even smaller angle than the second one.
What will be the angle of the previous period? Negative or positive?

There are two scenarios in my opinion.
A) positive
The price falls back on the support (lower limit of the wedge), rebounding on this line and beginning a rally. This rally will lead the token out of the wedge and ends the long declining trend. Of course, some resistances are to be taken - as the upper limit of the wedge and some swing trend lines. After having crossed the fib retracement 23.6% at ~324$ Ethereum would enter the zone, which I named "land of the free".

B) negative
Ethereum loses more momentum and breaks out of the wedge to the bottom. The negative trend continues and with breaking the first support it gains even more dynamic. Perhaps the negative move ends on the first supportzone, which is a swing trend line that had some importance in 2017. Or it ends on the second supportzone, which also has been a swing trend line and was probably the starting point of the rally in 2017 (~ 50$). Below this support Ethereum would enter the zone, I named "Doom zone".

The most important coins and tokens are correlated. If Bitcoin resumes new terrain, Ether will do too and vice versa. Not 1 on 1, but nearly.

I hope my thoughts have been helpfully for your decisions.

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