Hey Friends,
Since BTC couldn't break 10K the king has decided to bring the whole market into another correction before moving higher. When BTC fell through the 9K support it started pulling ETH down with it.
To give you an updated view on my market perspective, I have created this idea. I said it before that ETH could be forming one massive Cup and Handle from the cliff drop on March 5th, and this looks to be the case. If you look at my last post, you'll see that we found support on the previous/smaller Cup & Handle pattern target. I wouldn't get excited by this, I think we can still move to the top of the channel and get up to the 700-715 range within the next couple days, but I think another correction is needed.
The level I'm aiming for is the 600-625 range for a bounce and then a breakout from the handle to reach the neckline of the cup. From there I expect a bit of consolidation before moving higher to the long term .5 Fib retrace from the ATH (not pictured) then past that I looking at a target of 1100-1200 for another top. I'm expecting BTC to retest 8k which is why I'm looking at the 600 ish range for ETH.
I've drawn a feint little green doodle to show my expectation, I don't usually do that so we'll see how it plays out, the consolidation in the doodle may happen at the long term .5 and we may shoot right through that past resistance but it's still too early to tell.
Looking at the indicators RSI has yet to go oversold but would with another down move. The MACD just crossed the 0 and is showing Bearish momentum confirming another move down before we move up.
Conclusion: Down, then up. Looking to accumulate more at the 600-625 level and then looking for a confirmation of a breakout of the handle. If price breaks below 575 this idea is invalid, and we are in for a long winter, 2014 bear market scenario.
Like it if you like it!
**This is my own educated opinion for my own portfolio. Please do your own research before trading yourself.**
Since BTC couldn't break 10K the king has decided to bring the whole market into another correction before moving higher. When BTC fell through the 9K support it started pulling ETH down with it.
To give you an updated view on my market perspective, I have created this idea. I said it before that ETH could be forming one massive Cup and Handle from the cliff drop on March 5th, and this looks to be the case. If you look at my last post, you'll see that we found support on the previous/smaller Cup & Handle pattern target. I wouldn't get excited by this, I think we can still move to the top of the channel and get up to the 700-715 range within the next couple days, but I think another correction is needed.
The level I'm aiming for is the 600-625 range for a bounce and then a breakout from the handle to reach the neckline of the cup. From there I expect a bit of consolidation before moving higher to the long term .5 Fib retrace from the ATH (not pictured) then past that I looking at a target of 1100-1200 for another top. I'm expecting BTC to retest 8k which is why I'm looking at the 600 ish range for ETH.
I've drawn a feint little green doodle to show my expectation, I don't usually do that so we'll see how it plays out, the consolidation in the doodle may happen at the long term .5 and we may shoot right through that past resistance but it's still too early to tell.
Looking at the indicators RSI has yet to go oversold but would with another down move. The MACD just crossed the 0 and is showing Bearish momentum confirming another move down before we move up.
Conclusion: Down, then up. Looking to accumulate more at the 600-625 level and then looking for a confirmation of a breakout of the handle. If price breaks below 575 this idea is invalid, and we are in for a long winter, 2014 bear market scenario.
Like it if you like it!
**This is my own educated opinion for my own portfolio. Please do your own research before trading yourself.**
Comment:
So the Descending Triangle brokedown then immedietely formed an ascending Triangle which has broken out to the upside, The target for the Ascending Triangle is 740, which would break out of the handle's downward channel and could initiate our move to the Cup and Handle Target in which case we would go with Plan B and buy the retest of the downward channel trendline when it is tested as support.
RSI is looking very close to over bought however, so if we get rejected by the downward trendline that is the channel boundry then it's Plan A as originally discussed. We should know in the next few hours. Let's see how this plays out.
So the Descending Triangle brokedown then immedietely formed an ascending Triangle which has broken out to the upside, The target for the Ascending Triangle is 740, which would break out of the handle's downward channel and could initiate our move to the Cup and Handle Target in which case we would go with Plan B and buy the retest of the downward channel trendline when it is tested as support.
RSI is looking very close to over bought however, so if we get rejected by the downward trendline that is the channel boundry then it's Plan A as originally discussed. We should know in the next few hours. Let's see how this plays out.
Comment:
Alright, so plan B may be in effect, but we still need confirmation... You can see the Ascending Triangle broke out to full potential and hit right at $740.00 before returning to retest the downward trendline. I'm waiting for confirmation on the next 2-3 hourly candles. This will give us another candle close on the 4h. I need to be sure this is breaking out and not just a bull trap. Remember if we return inside the channel then Plan A is in effect and we are looking to hit our bounce target.
Alright, so plan B may be in effect, but we still need confirmation... You can see the Ascending Triangle broke out to full potential and hit right at $740.00 before returning to retest the downward trendline. I'm waiting for confirmation on the next 2-3 hourly candles. This will give us another candle close on the 4h. I need to be sure this is breaking out and not just a bull trap. Remember if we return inside the channel then Plan A is in effect and we are looking to hit our bounce target.
Comment:
I'm going to be conservative and wait for a break of 740 before executing, but this is looking like Plan B might be the way, This is turnign out bo be a sustained little breakout. It might be losing steam which is why I'm waiting for the break of 740, but this will be fun to watch.
I'm going to be conservative and wait for a break of 740 before executing, but this is looking like Plan B might be the way, This is turnign out bo be a sustained little breakout. It might be losing steam which is why I'm waiting for the break of 740, but this will be fun to watch.
Comment:
What a show! Price action has tested and been rejected by the 740, not once, not twice, but three times on the hourly. We are really losing steam now, the RSI was overbought near 740 like we thought, and the MACD is making a bearish cross. I think it's back to Plan A, unless the bulls make some sort of epic recovery run I see us going down or moving sideways for a bit. This point lines up perfectly with BTC's resistance zone. Watch BTC closely becuase ETH will likely follow suit up or down.
What a show! Price action has tested and been rejected by the 740, not once, not twice, but three times on the hourly. We are really losing steam now, the RSI was overbought near 740 like we thought, and the MACD is making a bearish cross. I think it's back to Plan A, unless the bulls make some sort of epic recovery run I see us going down or moving sideways for a bit. This point lines up perfectly with BTC's resistance zone. Watch BTC closely becuase ETH will likely follow suit up or down.
Comment:
Just as we thought, you can see we have fallen back into the downward chanel and we have been caught by the top of the Ascending Wedge that sent us out of the chanel in the first place. I expect this level to take us sidewys and then fail. where we can then reach our targets.
Just as we thought, you can see we have fallen back into the downward chanel and we have been caught by the top of the Ascending Wedge that sent us out of the chanel in the first place. I expect this level to take us sidewys and then fail. where we can then reach our targets.
Comment:
Looks Like the 690 acsending triangle top held well, we tested it then the top of the downward channel then the tested it again and immedietely shot out of the channel. This could be the break we've been wating for. We didnt quite hit our bounce target, but with consensus going on the down move may have been dampened.
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Comment:
BTC and ETH are neck and neck, and both are slowly pushing through this heavy resistance, still waiting for confirmation on weather we make it through or turn around to head lower. This could very well be our breakout, time will tell
Comment:
Waiting for confirmation but if I see this moving up I'm in it. This Ascending Triangle has a target at our previous higher high around 840 which paired with the buzz of crypto week should propell us to higher highs even thought 840 would bw a technical higher high already. The point is we probably won't retrace back to the bouce target but we need confirmation to be sure, if the triangle breaks out to the upside then we are in, if it breaks to the downside we will re evaluate.
Waiting for confirmation but if I see this moving up I'm in it. This Ascending Triangle has a target at our previous higher high around 840 which paired with the buzz of crypto week should propell us to higher highs even thought 840 would bw a technical higher high already. The point is we probably won't retrace back to the bouce target but we need confirmation to be sure, if the triangle breaks out to the upside then we are in, if it breaks to the downside we will re evaluate.
Comment:
Hey Guys,
Another update for ya, we are getting mixed signals... First of all the previous ascending triangle I drew I was using the close price for the C point, on this picture you'll see I changed it to the low and it make the triangle longer and fit the current price action. Which lines up with the bounce near the edge of the triangles upward sloping lower bound. This is a bullish development, BUT ETH and BTC have been trading hand in hand and while Eth is forming an ascending triangle, BTC's looks more like an ascending wedge (Bearish) also, you can see the MACD is showing bearish divergence, which is what we typically see before a bearish reversal. So like I said, mixed signals, If ETH breaks out of this Acsending to the upside we could retest the orange resistance and target the $840 range but with BTC's momentum slowing I think this may turn over so I remain patiently waiting for a good entry.
Hey Guys,
Another update for ya, we are getting mixed signals... First of all the previous ascending triangle I drew I was using the close price for the C point, on this picture you'll see I changed it to the low and it make the triangle longer and fit the current price action. Which lines up with the bounce near the edge of the triangles upward sloping lower bound. This is a bullish development, BUT ETH and BTC have been trading hand in hand and while Eth is forming an ascending triangle, BTC's looks more like an ascending wedge (Bearish) also, you can see the MACD is showing bearish divergence, which is what we typically see before a bearish reversal. So like I said, mixed signals, If ETH breaks out of this Acsending to the upside we could retest the orange resistance and target the $840 range but with BTC's momentum slowing I think this may turn over so I remain patiently waiting for a good entry.
Comment:
Break down, BTC will probably consolidate at 8k so we may not fall all the way to target but we're headed down
Comment:
If I were looking at ETH alone without considering BTC I would say theat 690 would be a great bounce target because it would show a retest of the downtrend channel and upward preperation. It is also consensus in NY so this way just run sideways and slightly slide lower the next week or so. Time will tell.
Comment:
So far everything has moved just as we planned, it's taken a little longer than we originally thought, but otherwise exactly to plan
Comment:
Here's a redraw of the situation where I have expanded the handle channel and added Eliot wave theory. If we have a full C correction leg that extends to the 1.68 fib extention of correction wave A then unfortunetely that would invalidate our cup and handle. But I do expect a truncated C leg and a bounce near the bottom of the bounce target. in the 580-600 range
Here's a redraw of the situation where I have expanded the handle channel and added Eliot wave theory. If we have a full C correction leg that extends to the 1.68 fib extention of correction wave A then unfortunetely that would invalidate our cup and handle. But I do expect a truncated C leg and a bounce near the bottom of the bounce target. in the 580-600 range
Comment:
After a retest of the first downward trendline of the handle chanel ETH turned upward to retest the dotted trendline where it failed and has now formed the same head and shoulders pattern that we see in BTC. This H&S has a target right within our bounce zone. It's pretty clear we are going to hit our bounce zone, but it is still unclear if we may extend lower to the full potential of the correction. As you know from reading my updates, I am hoping for a truncated C leg wihich ends in our bounce zone as that would validate the cup and handle and sedn us higher, however, we do have potential to go lower depending on what king Bitcoin does.
After a retest of the first downward trendline of the handle chanel ETH turned upward to retest the dotted trendline where it failed and has now formed the same head and shoulders pattern that we see in BTC. This H&S has a target right within our bounce zone. It's pretty clear we are going to hit our bounce zone, but it is still unclear if we may extend lower to the full potential of the correction. As you know from reading my updates, I am hoping for a truncated C leg wihich ends in our bounce zone as that would validate the cup and handle and sedn us higher, however, we do have potential to go lower depending on what king Bitcoin does.
Comment:
We are approaching the edge of the channel while simultaneously forming a symmetrical triangle, if it breaks up this could be the break we've been waiting for. If it breaks down i'm aiming for the bounce zone
We are approaching the edge of the channel while simultaneously forming a symmetrical triangle, if it breaks up this could be the break we've been waiting for. If it breaks down i'm aiming for the bounce zone
Comment:
The Symmetrical Triangle is breaking down, so unless we get a bounce off of the short term .786 then we should head down, which should complete the Head and shoulders which has a target of, you guessed it, our bounce zone. The Symmetrical Triangle has a target which is lower than the bounce zone, right at the long term .382 If we retrace that far then the cup and handle is no longer valid. So my plan is to accumulate in the bounce zone and I will look to sell higher if the bounce/momentum is weak, but my hope is that the bounce zone will hold well and we can start moving upward again keeping the C&H valid by keeping the handle within a 50% retrace of the cup. We will re-evaluate later when we get there. So far this is moving to plan. Obviously my arrows ar a bit misplaced timing wise, but this is why I don't trade options haha I like targets not timelines, I cant tell the market to move when I want to, but I can certainly see where it's headed and spot those bottoms.
The Symmetrical Triangle is breaking down, so unless we get a bounce off of the short term .786 then we should head down, which should complete the Head and shoulders which has a target of, you guessed it, our bounce zone. The Symmetrical Triangle has a target which is lower than the bounce zone, right at the long term .382 If we retrace that far then the cup and handle is no longer valid. So my plan is to accumulate in the bounce zone and I will look to sell higher if the bounce/momentum is weak, but my hope is that the bounce zone will hold well and we can start moving upward again keeping the C&H valid by keeping the handle within a 50% retrace of the cup. We will re-evaluate later when we get there. So far this is moving to plan. Obviously my arrows ar a bit misplaced timing wise, but this is why I don't trade options haha I like targets not timelines, I cant tell the market to move when I want to, but I can certainly see where it's headed and spot those bottoms.
Comment:
Heres a better look at the Head and shoulders pattern, sorry it's green in the first pic, the target is the .5 long term fib retrace.
Comment:
I updated the lower boundary of the Symm Triangle to be more acurate and left the previous in place but made it dashed and grey. The H&S I thought was here became invalid through the following price action, but the picture is becoming clearer, I'm looking for price action to either confirm the handle as support, or break back down into the downward channel. Let's see
Comment:
A nice bounce off of the handles downward channel, this could be the breakout we’ve been waiting on, watching the upward bound of that Synm Triangle to set an entry, I need confirmation first.
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This could be the break we've been waiting for, looking for confirmation on the candle close. Looking good and rounding out the Handle well. We shall see
This could be the break we've been waiting for, looking for confirmation on the candle close. Looking good and rounding out the Handle well. We shall see
Comment:
I have opened a small position at the retest of the symm triangle, but this breakout isn't very strong yet. I'm looking for volume to increase after this retest and I will be ready to get in a bigger position. Starting small and scaling up. If we fall back into the sym triangle and come close to the 700 range that will show weakness and I'll be forced to exit. I will update with more later, but this is slowly looking better and better, RSI and MACD are nuetral, but the larger time frame show some hidden bullish divergence so I feel a swing coming. We shall see
Comment:
Forgot to point out the technical retest of the handle's downward channel, it held as support which is bullish. Also remember we are closely watching BTC here we need upward or sideways action to enable an upward move in ETH. If BTC can test and hold 8500 as support we are looking good. If BTC falls, we all fall down.
Comment:
Bought the dip, I like how BTC is acting and I like the bounce off of the EMA's I'm not all in on this position of what I could be but I have a good position. We will see how this teakes off.
Comment:
Chart says it all, the target for the previous inv H&S was hit, this one has a target of $760 ish
Chart says it all, the target for the previous inv H&S was hit, this one has a target of $760 ish
Comment:
Symmetrical Triangle or Inverser Head and Shoulders, target is the same, but the likelyhood of other traders recognising the pattern just went up 10 fold.
Also a reminder of the long term, big picture...
Symmetrical Triangle or Inverser Head and Shoulders, target is the same, but the likelyhood of other traders recognising the pattern just went up 10 fold.
Also a reminder of the long term, big picture...
Comment:
I redused the size of my position, I don't like this sidways price action, bullish colume hasnt picked up and the momentum is lack luster.
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Reduced it even lower. I don't like the price acton here. Wanted to see more momentum.
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an awesome spring bounce near the bottom of our bounce zone, BTC is looking near the full correction of the C leg, I bought a small position on the bounce. I'm looking at the 600 level closely, we need to break back above 600 or that will act as resistance and we will se prices move lower.
Comment:
BTC not looking healthy retested and double topped at the 7600 level on the 15 min chart. I'm out, took a very small commisions loss, but not worried about that in the long run. its worth it to be sidelined here.
Comment:
back in at 600, probably over trading this, but I cant ignore the bullish divergence, BTC bounced right at our decending wedge marker, we should have a green day tomorrow
Like it if you like it, and comment if you have a question. I'm happy to answer!
***This is a reflection of my own educated opinion and should not be viewed as financial advise, please use this for educational purposes only.***
***This is a reflection of my own educated opinion and should not be viewed as financial advise, please use this for educational purposes only.***
Forget about heading back to 700, we have a decending triangle nreaking out on the hourly and based on the flag pattern it's target is within our bounce target.