BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
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Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Ethereum! Let's jump right in! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that ETH did breakout from the bull flag , but the breakout is not impressive. The dotted black trendline (rising from the bull flag ) represents the potential gains acquired by a move equal to 100% of the formation's potential. Unfortunately, the bulls have quickly run out of gas, and the breakout has only captured about 1/3 of the formations full potential. As you can see, the ever-so-resistive 50 EMA (in orange) is just above the price action, and it's acting like a wall that many coins just can't seem to penetrate. There is still a hypothetical inverse head and shoulders pattern on the chart, from our visionary discussion on the last post, but unless we can get above the 50 EMA , that formation won't be likely to develop. As a reminder, the visionary discussion was purely hypothetical, and assessed the potential movement that could be generated if the bull flag reached a breakout of 100% of it's potential. Now, I have seen inverse head and shoulders bottoms with multiple troughs, but I'm more inclined to believe that we could be forming a lower high at the moment. Perhaps we haven't seen the 'peak' of the head yet, and ETH wants to head lower, to touch my triangle target first. =D Technically, a breakdown hasn't occurred yet, so the inverse head and shoulders theory is still plausible, but given the overall posture of the crypto space, and the weak bull flag breakout, I think there is a high probability that ETH rolls over from here. Volume has been steadily dropping as well, which did not confirm the breakout of the bull flag . Clearly, the interest in ETH is waning. On the MACD , we can see that we've been moving higher, over a bullish crossover, but it appears to be just starting to flatten, before potentially rolling over. The interesting thing to note is the bullish divergence , or lack-there-of ( MACD orange dotted trendline .) Many of the other charts that I review, show strong bullish divergences in the MACD , where price makes lower lows, and the MACD makes higher lows. ETH's MACD has formed an equal low, as price formed lower lows. It is a divergence, but not a very strong one. Still, it is a weak indication that the bulls are trying to form a bottom in this market. Do not, do not, do not, let that blind you from the fact that this is still a bear market, and the bears are in total control. A single bounce does not end a bear market. The bulls have a lot of work to do, to regain control of ETH.
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