EWs ETHUSD, 0.618 A = C => $180

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Basically, the C wave often is related to A wave in Fibbonacci extension. Just like Wave 3 often is 1.618 (or 2.618 etc) of wave 1, many have heard of it, in the same way wave C is related to wave A. Wave C most often is equal to wave A (A=C, 1 ratio), but that would bring us far into negative price. Wave C also can just end at 0.618 of the wave A extension. $180s-$170s is a good area to be long from. Don't listen to FUD, especially if nothing has really changed fundamentally about ETH.
Entry = $186 (I'm already long, but we may revisit the area)
Stop = $168 (although probably can also be put to $134)
Target = $430+
Comment: Volume is rising, RSI divergence still holding (RSI divergence by some EW experts is considered a must for wave 5), so it's confirming (so far) that we are likely in wave 5 of C.
Comment: Straight up stealing from EXCAVO, but it really makes sense and I'd do it myself if I remembered earlier :)
It is a legitimate technique, channeling, for potential identification where wave C can end. This is a parallel channel on a log graph.
Trade active
Comment: Approaching the bottom of the parallel channel
Volume spiking
Perfect time to buy, stop loss can be super tight under the channel at around 160
Comment: Nice bounce, although it didn't reach the channel bottom by about 2-3 dollars. Is it actually reverting and going bullish midterm? Yeah it's very likely.

The long that I took at 186 went from a lot of green to some red, now at BE. Going to keep it and as I said before, it's a low position size long with loose stop at $130s and target of $430+ and the likely duration of the trade of around 2 weeks+
Comment: I guess that significantly low number of upvotes than usual for a trading idea indicates that I'm more likely to be right when calling a top/bottom. Sentiment was not ready for a bottom (and obviously bottoms happen when majority don't expect them).
Trade closed manually: Doesn't look that great, taking profit here. After new price development it looks more likely that we haven't yet finished wave C (in that alternate count we are right now inside wave 4 of C), so a new lower low might be coming.

Closing now for 18% profit.
Comment: Here's what prompted me to also re-evaluate:
White line (or rectangle area) is where the highest volume happened. Orange line (or rectangle area) is where the final top/bottom on price happened.

This extremely high volume last couple of days on ETHUSD signals the bottom is near, but based on previous history (and generally it is known in EWs) that the 5th wave usually has lower volume. So wave 5 of C is likely yet to come.
Comment: Will try to re-enter again in the $180s. The reasons are the same (described above), this trade is still valid. Another reason - SEC decision on Vaneck and SOlidX was postponed to Sept. 30th, so that also adds to the probability that we will see a run up (or maybe even have seen the absolute bottom for ETHUSD).
Comment: LOL, I should have kept my long for longer. I made a pretty bad decision to exit and try to re-enter later, especially considering the SEC decision (at the time there were no info about postponing) and simple R/R on the exit-re-entry "trade".

Important update: SEC decision on CBOE-related ETFs seems to be postponed (at least they asked for more comments today, giving 25 and 40 more days for the comments to accumulate).

What is important about it is the market reaction to it. It's hard to say that the SEC decision has fully been reflected on the market (I'd give at least 12 hours for the market to fully react, because some people were sleeping when the decision was allegedly postponed), BUT the lack of immediate dump and instead price moving even higher suggests that market by itself maybe be way more bullish than we expect.


I agree "Entry = $186 (I'm already long, but we may revisit the area) "
Here is my almost similar view:
+1 Reply
profghibli Trader-looser
@Trader-looser, Don't fully get it, but glad we agree :)
Trader-looser profghibli
@profghibli, )) Sorry, had no time to make a better explanation. But I did it here now:
profghibli Trader-looser
@Trader-looser, Yeah, agree with all the points.
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